Polls suggest the PP will win 131-151 seats in the 350-seat lower house, falling short of an absolute majority of 176 seats.
The preservative People’s Party (PP) is comfortably ahead of the ruling Socialists, according to the latest polls allowed to be released under Spanish law ahead of the July 23 parliamentary election, but will need the support of far-right Vox to govern.
According to Spain’s biggest polling firms, which are banned from publishing the results of public opinion polls from tomorrow Tuesday, the PP will win 131-151 seats in the lower house which has a total of 350 seats, short of the absolute majority of 176 seats.
While some polls suggest Vox will secure enough seats to give the right a simple majority, the average of all polls released today by GAD3, 40db, IMOP, Sigma 2 and Simple Logica shows them securing 139 and 36 seats, respectively, or one seat short of 176.
The Socialist Labor Party (PSOE) of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will secure 98-115 seats, according to opinion polls, which show an average of 108 seats.
A hypothetical alliance between the PP and the anti-immigrant, anti-feminist Vox would see PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijo become prime minister, but much will depend on which party comes third in certain regions, and how many MPs regional parties elect, who supported Sanchez’s minority coalition in recent years.
The Vox competes breast to breast with the Sumara new alliance of radical left parties that include the Podemos, the smaller government partner. Sumar will take 25-39 seats, according to the polls.
In many constituencies, third place is critical as the party that comes fourth usually fails to elect MPs.
Sanchez, who still hopes to have enough support in parliament to form a government, canceled part of his daily schedule in Brussels today to attend a rally in the northeastern city of Huesca, where the PSOE is fighting to win an additional seat.
Sumar and PSOE have said they intend to revive the ruling coalition.
THE Feyho has not said whether it would seal a post-election alliance with Vox, although the two parties have teamed up in several regions and many municipalities since the May 28 local elections, where the ruling coalition suffered a landslide defeat.
Sanchez announced the proceedings early elections on May 29, apparently hoping it would force the PP to campaign while also awkwardly negotiating coalition deals with Vox in the regions.
A national alliance PP-Vox it would give the far right a role in government for the first time since the current Constitution was adopted in 1978 following 40 years of Francisco Franco’s dictatorship.
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