A refugee crisis is ongoing in Nagorno-Karabakh with the region’s Armenians fleeing their homes in the face of the fear of reprisals and ethnic cleansing after victory of Azerbaijani forces.

Azerbaijan and the Armenians in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh they declared a ceasefire, 24 hours after Azerbaijan launched a military offensive with Armenian forces agreeing to disband and disarm.

The region is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but for three decades large sections were controlled by Armeniansis in focus one of the longest conflicts in the world. But what is the story of the conflict?

Where is Nagorno-Karabakh located?

The region is located in the Southern Caucasus Mountains of Eastern Europe and Asia between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea.

Azerbaijan and Armenia waged a bloody war over Nagorno-Karabakh in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and fueled the ongoing violence between the two countries in recent years.

The latest major escalation of the conflict occurred in 2020, when thousands of people were killed in six weeks amid fierce fighting.

The deployment of Russian peacekeepers to the conflict resort has resulted to stop the fighting at that time. However, tensions escalated in recent years before finally leading to last military operation.

The last conflict

In December 2022, fears of a new conflict erupted when Azerbaijan blocked the vital Lachin Corridor which is the only road connecting the enclave to the Republic of Armenia.

The Lachine Corridor is the main artery for supplies and residents in Nagorno-Karabakh reported that its blockade caused severe shortages of their food and medicine.

Azerbaijan, for its part, accused Armenia of using the corridor to pass military supplies, a charge that Armenia categorically denied. Baku also claimed to deliver food and aid to residents through another route, but Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh denied this.

Alongside, observers reported a build-up of Azerbaijani troops during the blockadewhich Baku denied.

The hopes that tensions may flare came when a small number of aid trucks operated by the International Committee of the Red Cross they were allowed to enter Nagorno-Karabakh in mid-September via the Lachin Corridor and, separately, the Akhdam Road from Azerbaijan.

However, maintaining transport links, particularly the Lachine Corridor, relied heavily on the presence of Russian peacekeepers who have been deployed in the region since 2020.

By war launched by Russia in Ukraineits attention and military resources were focused on the invasion with the Armenian prime minister stating that Russia “spontaneously leaves the area”.

Nagorno Karabakh

Wars over the years

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been involved in two wars over Nagorno-Karabakh since the collapse of the Soviet Union, three decades ago. Today, the situation remains unsettled.

Nagorno-Karabakh is one mountainous region located within Azerbaijan and under international law is recognized as part of it.

But the Armenians they call it Artsakh and make up the vast majority of the approximately 120,000 inhabitants of the region. They have their own autonomous administration in it, which maintains close ties with Armenia but is not officially recognized by Yerevan. Both sides claim deep historical ties to Nagorno-Karabakh, which under the Soviet Union became an autonomous region within the republic of Azerbaijan. Armenia has never recognized the region’s independence and remains its main economic and military supporter.

The first Karabakh war broke out in 1988 and lasted until 1994. Nearly 30,000 people died and more than a million were displaced. Most of them were Azeris who were driven from their homes when the Armenian side now controlled Nagorno-Karabakh as well as parts of seven regions around it.

In 2020, Baku launched a military operation that evolved into the second Karabakh war who quickly broke through the Armenian defenses. Within 44 days, and nearly 6,500 dead later, Azerbaijan took back seven regions and 1/3 of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Nagorno Karabakh

According to analysts, pivotal to Baku’s victory was the use of drones by Turkey and Israel.

Russia which has a defense treaty with Armenia but also good relations with Azerbaijan, negotiated a ceasefire. The deal called for about 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to be deployed in Karabakh to guard the only road left linking the enclave to Armenia – the so-called Lachin Corridor. Yerevan, however, criticizes Moscow for not keeping its commitment while tensions in the region remained high and negotiations to sign a peace agreement did not progress.

In February 1992, residents of the city of Khojaly, Azerbaijanlocated in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, were killed by Armenian forces, with the help of some Russian troops. More than 600 people died, according to Azerbaijan. Armenia disputes the death toll.

Over the years, tens of thousands of people were killed and more than a million were displaced amid reports of ethnic cleansing and massacres committed by both sides.

The first Nagorno-Karabakh war ended with a ceasefire mediated by Russia in 1994, after Armenian forces had gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and its neighboring areas.

According to the agreement, Nagorno-Karabakh remained part of Azerbaijanbut has since been an autonomous region, administered by Armenians and supported by the Armenian government.

Who are Russia and Turkey supporting?

Regional powers have been heavily involved in the conflict all these years.

Turkey has close cultural and historical ties with Azerbaijan. Turkish-made Bayraktar drones are said to have played a critical role in the fighting in 2020, allowing Azerbaijan to make territorial gains.

Armeniaon the other, traditionally had good relations with Russia. There is a Russian military base in Armenia, and both are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military alliance of six former Soviet states.

But relations between Armenia and Russia have deteriorated since Nikol Pashinyan, who led massive anti-government protests in 2018, became Armenia’s prime minister.

He recently said that Armenia’s reliance on Russia as its sole source of security was a “strategic mistake.”

Armenia then announced this month that it was hosting joint exercises with US forces, which Moscow criticized as “unfriendly steps”.

President Vladimir Putin denied that Armenia had severed its alliance with Russiabut stated that Yerevan “effectively recognized” Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh.

“If Armenia itself recognizes that Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan, what should we do?” he said during an economic forum in Vladivostok.