One can claim and attribute whatever one wants to her. But one thing is beyond doubt: No other German government has had as turbulent a start to its term as the one under Olaf Scholz. Today marks two years since the elections that led to the first government alliance in German history between three such mismatched partners: the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals. After a “half” of a legislative term one can sum up and say that this time has been marked by the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the ongoing battles over the Heating Act and Basic Child Benefit. But the second “half” is not expected to be any less easy.

Enthusiastic start, but…

In the beginning the goal was a new successful startup. When Chancellor Soltz made the first government statements to the plenary session of Parliament in mid-December 2021 the word start appeared 10 times. The word progress in fact 31 times. Then the new government of the so-called traffic light wanted to present itself as a reform alliance that would tackle the big issues of the future, such as fighting global warming and climate-friendly restructuring of the economy. In addition, the fight against the pandemic was still in the foreground at that time. And no one was really thinking about war yet. Ukraine was not mentioned once in Solz’s 86-minute government remarks. A record!

This phase of excitement lasted 82 days. The Russian attack on Ukraine landed the new government in a new reality. In his speech to the German parliament on February 27, 2022, three days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Scholz reversed course on foreign policy, broke a taboo on the supply of weapons to an ongoing war, and announced a major rearmament of the German armed forces. forces. The crisis acted “gluingly” on the coalition even if there were frictions, such as over the pace of arms deliveries. Above all, however, the government managed to prevent dire shortages in energy supply, and despite the bleak scenarios, the country spent last winter quite well.

Groans and creaks

By the first anniversary of the start of the war the image of the coalition government was looking pretty good. After the supply of Leopard 2 tanks even the Ukrainian government no longer complained about the reluctant Germans. The German government turned its gaze inward. The chancellor spoke of greater self-confidence. That the great questions of the future should at last be boldly faced. However, the coalition failed to move from crisis management to planning for its response. There were rattles and then cracks. The heating law became a symbol of dissent, indiscretion and a massive loss of trust among residents.

How is the interim tally recorded in the polls? Halfway through its term, the government is literally in the “basement”. In 2021 SPD, Greens and FDP gathered together 52%. In the latest polls of eight institutes they gather 37.7% and have lost the majority. According to a YouGov survey conducted in August, 72% of Germans are dissatisfied with the government’s work in the first half of its term. 68% do not trust her to solve the urgent problems. And only 18% believe in re-electing the coalition in the central elections of 2025, in which Soltz aims to be re-elected.

Government with a “muffler”?

However, none of this is consistent with the result of a large-scale study by the Bertelsmann Foundation on the implementation of the government agreement. The authors conclude that the so-called traffic light government has made an “overall very good start”. Of the 453 commitments outlined in the agreement, nearly two-thirds (64%) have either been implemented (38%) or are in the process of being implemented (26%). Compared to the previous government the coalition has achieved somewhat less, but the absolute number of government projects already started is higher. So what’s going on? Is government better than its reputation?

In any case, the public way of communication between ministers seems to be one of the government’s biggest problems. Vice Chancellor Robert Hambeck once put it this way: “We are self-destructive, and that is certainly not a secret to success in the long run.” Ahead of the second half in government, the partners at their summer meeting in Meseberg near Berlin have now set themselves the task of governing with a “muffler”, as Chancellor Scholz characteristically called it. Whether it will be followed will be seen in a few days, when local elections will be held in two of Germany’s most populous states. In Bavaria and Hesse, the FDP reaches the 5% mark. Things could also get ugly for the SPD. A landslide defeat in Bavaria with a possible single-digit result is an expected But even if Interior Minister Nancy Fesser from the Social Democratic party who is standing as a regional premier candidate also fails by a wide margin in Hesse, the SPD could react nervously.

Super-election year in 2024

Bavaria and Hesse are just the prelude to a series of electoral battles that will shape the second half of an intense election season. Because June 9, 2024 is the day of the so-called “super” elections with the European elections and the municipal elections in nine federal states. Local elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg follow in September. In all three states, the far-right ethno-popular AfD is now far ahead in the polls with a percentage of more than 30%. The skyrocketing popularity of this party already dominates much of the political debate in Berlin. Chancellor Solz never tires of predicting that the AfD will be no stronger in the next central election than it was in the previous one with 10.3%, which is equivalent to halving today’s opinion polls. But even the most optimistic in his own party hardly dare to believe it.

In any case, the issues that will define the agenda of the second half of the legislative period are likely to be overcoming the economic recession, ridding the country of excessive bureaucracy and dealing with the growing number of immigrants. What is achieved in these areas will likely determine the fate of the three-party coalition government. In any case the election campaign for the 2025 federal election has long since begun.