Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian dissident Alexei Navalny are among the favorites for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, but experts say women’s rights, indigenous peoples and environmental activists could steal the show.

Given what has happened in the past, the Norwegian Nobel Committee may also spring the ultimate surprise in the announcement on October 6. Although bookmakers place Zelensky as the front-runner to be shortlisted, along with Nelson Mandela and Martin Luther King, Nobel Prize experts believe that as a wartime leader, the Ukrainian president is unlikely to prevail.

The imprisoned Navalny’s chances are also limited as Russian dissidents won last year and the year before. Another bookies favorite is jailed Uyghur activist Ilham Tohti, although that would provoke a strong reaction from China. When jailed dissident Liu Xiaobo won the peace prize, Beijing froze diplomatic relations with Oslo for six years.

Henrik Urdahl, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, said that in a year marking the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the committee might decide to highlight the contribution of activists to peace. According to him, awarding the prize to Tohti or another activist in China would be a welcome move that would draw attention to Beijing’s increasingly authoritarian rule.

Urdal also mentioned Nargis Mohammadi, who fights for women’s rights and against the death penalty and is now in prison; Mahbooba Sheraj, who despite being banned by the Taliban, continues to fight for girls’ rights to education and other women’s rights and remains in Kabul.

“I think perhaps the most likely candidates will be human rights defenders,” he said.

‘DECOMPOSITION OF PEACE’

Thousands of people can nominate names, including former laureates, members of parliament and university professors of History or Law. Nominations remain secret for 50 years but those submitting proposals can choose to reveal their selections.

Last year’s prize, seen by many as a nod to President Vladimir Putin, was awarded to Belarusian activist Ales Bilyatsky, the Russian rights group Memorial and the Ukrainian Center for Civil Liberties.

The Nobel committee may want to highlight climate change, an issue it focused on in 2007 when it awarded the prize to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and former US Vice President Al Gore.

“It is a period of decay of peace. At the same time, it is the time when we are under the pressure of a massive ecological crisis,” said Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. “Climate change, obviously in some circumstances, is leading to new conflicts.”

Smith mentioned the ‘Fridays for the Future’ movement started by Greta Thunberg as a possible candidate, as well as indigenous leader Raoni Metuktire of Brazil’s Cayapo tribe, who has been fighting for decades to protect the Amazon rainforest.

Urdahl agreed that indigenous rights may come to the fore, citing Victoria Tauli-Corpuz of the Philippines, formerly the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, and indigenous leader Juan Carlos Hidiaz of Ecuador. Possible nominations include an international organization such as the International Court of Justice, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees UNHCR, the children’s fund UNICEF, or the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).