The failure of Israeli intelligence services to predict the bloody and unprecedented attack by Hamas against their country stems from the fact that they had no understanding of the Palestinian Islamist organization Hamas as such, experts say.

Israel was caught by surprise in the early hours of Saturday when Hamas fired thousands of rockets from the Gaza Strip, which it controls, and sent 1,000 fighters into its territory, killing hundreds of people and kidnapping at least 100 others.

The military immediately deployed tens of thousands of troops to regain control against Hamas. Its forces continue to fight entrenched Palestinians in the south, and its air force has bombed hundreds of targets in the Gaza Strip.

According to the latest official count, more than 700 people died on the Israeli side, the heaviest toll from an attack on Israel. Among the victims, up to 250 were slaughtered during a rave party near Gaza, according to an NGO.

“It’s a colossal failure of the intelligence system and the military machine for the southern (areas)” bordering Gaza, emphasized retired General Yaakov Amidror, Israel’s National Security Adviser from 2011 to 2013.

But apart from the failure of Israel’s renowned intelligence services to detect or prevent this carefully planned attack, the general perception of Hamas by the authorities in Israel was completely wrong, he told reporters.

“We made a colossal mistake, myself included, in believing that a terrorist organization could change its DNA,” says Amidror, now a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

“Our friends around the world told us that Hamas said to get ‘more responsibility’ and we were stupid to believe it. So we were wrong. We will not make that mistake again and we will destroy Hamas slowly but surely.”

Considered a “terrorist” organization by Israel, the US and the European Union, Hamas has controlled Gaza since it ousted rival Fatah from the Palestinian enclave in 2007, two years after Israel unilaterally withdrew from the territory.

The charter of Hamas, Israel’s sworn enemy against whom it declares an armed struggle, calls for an Islamic state in all of the Palestinian territories. Israel continues to occupy the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, which it has annexed to its territory.

Wars between Israel and Hamas since 2007 have been marked by devastating Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip, as the army sought to destroy Hamas military infrastructure, and rocket barrages into Israel.

In an effort to guarantee a sustainable truce, Israel had increased the number of work and business permits it grants to Gazans after the 2021 war, with nearly 18,500 workers entering Israel, while almost half the population in Gaza is unemployed .

Israel saw economic incentives as a means of keeping calm.

On October 1, Israel’s National Security Adviser Jahi Hanegbi therefore stated that Hamas had not fired any rockets in the last two years, according to him.

“Hamas is showing great restraint” and knows the price of a potential escalation, he told army radio.

Michael Milstein: Total contempt

For Michael Milstein, director of the Palestinian Studies Forum at Tel-Aviv University, such statements show “that we had a completely wrong opinion of Hamas.”

“The idea of ​​economic incentives that can reduce Hamas’ motivation to commit terrorist acts or even push (Palestinian) public opinion to oppose the movement has completely collapsed,” he told AFP.

“You’re dealing with a radical ideological organization, do you think you can actually buy their ideology? Change it? That’s complete contempt and possibly wishful thinking,” Milstein said.

In the meantime “they were strengthening and preparing the next stage of their war”.

This retired intelligence official states that the Hamas leadership has publicly declared its intention to carry out an attack like the one on Saturday.

“The operation had been prepared for almost a year, which is unthinkable as during this year Israel continued to increase the number of work permits (granted to Palestinians) and concessions,” according to his opinion.

“Israel’s view was that Hamas did not want escalation,” while “the message was very clear, but those in charge did not want to believe it,” he says.

On Saturday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallad said that when he was head of the military command of southern Israel in 2009, he wanted to destroy Hamas but had been blocked by politicians.

Today, he does not consider himself subject to any limitation. “We will change the reality on the ground in Gaza,” he promised: “What existed before will no longer exist.”

Hamas gave the impression that it had focused on the economy

“Hamas used an unprecedented intelligence tactic to mislead Israel in recent months, publicly giving the impression that it did not want to go to war or confrontation with Israel while preparing for the major operation,” a source told Reuters on condition of anonymity. .

Israel misinterpreted education as a stop. Hamas was training for the attack and was able to build a whole image that it was not ready for a military adventure against Israel,” the source said.

An Israeli security source admitted that Israel’s security services were deceived by Hamas. “They made us think they wanted money. And all this time they were participating in drills/gyms until they rioted.”