There are only a few days left until the presidential elections on Sunday, February 6, in Costa Rica, and very little is known for sure. Probably the most obvious is that none of the candidates running for this candidacy will obtain the 40% of votes required by the Constitution to be elected president.
If what is expected happens, the two people who obtain the most votes will face each other on the first Sunday of April, in a second electoral round, where a simple majority of votes will be enough to win the rallies and be declared President of the Republic.
The latest polls reflect a fight for the first two places between four candidates: José María Figueres, of the Liberación Nacional Party (social democrat), Lineth Saborío, of the Unidad Social Cristiana Party (Christian social), Fabricio Alvarado, of the Nueva República Party (protestant conservative) and José María Villalta, of the Frente Amplio (socialist) Party.
Another “certainty” to date is the poor electoral performance of the party currently in power, Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC), whose candidate Welmer Ramos does not seem to be convincing even his own base in the face of a very discredited administration. According to the December measurement by the Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP) at the University of Costa Rica, Ramos appears with a voting intention of 0.5%.
If the party that has ruled Costa Rica for eight years does not succeed with a surprising comeback in the few remaining days – something highly unlikely – the country will be ruled by a new political force. And it is possible that the PAC does not even reach the parliament, composed of only 57 deputies.
Campaign and debates
On the other hand, the campaign did not really capture the attention of the electorate. Much of this is due to the pandemic, but also to the fact that none of the parties has the financial resources to invest in the campaign. Big rallies are a thing of the past. Virtually all resources are now spent on (very expensive) television advertising spots and on social networks.
However, it is hoped that the start of the debate season in the main media will arouse the interest of citizens who still do not know who to vote for. According to the CIEP, undecided voters represent just over 40% of voters, who are therefore in their hands the ability to determine who will reach the second round in April.
It must be taken into account that all 25 candidates in the electoral race will not participate in the debates. Most media outlets will likely invite six or seven candidates who are leading the polls. The exception was the series of debates organized by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE), the highest electoral authority in the country, in which all presidential candidates participated.
The TSE divided the candidates into four groups (according to the order in which they would appear on the ballot) and, for four nights, groups of 6 or 7 candidates presented their proposals. The exchange was quite scarce due to the format implemented by the TSE.
Although it is believed that these debates were not widely followed by the majority of citizens, some of the interventions had a great impact on the electorate, especially on social media.
Particular attention was drawn to the blow given to the candidacy of Lineth Saborío, the candidate of one of the most supported parties, who was presented as a candidate without concrete ideas. With ambiguous phrases, she got into trouble precisely when, when answering a question about her lack of proposals, she answered in an incomprehensible way.
On the other hand, conservative, liberal or right-wing voters have the disadvantage of an excess of candidates, which dilute the weight of the votes. Furthermore, some of these candidates have decided to attack each other in order to steal votes in their personal intention for the coveted top two.
For example, candidate Rodrigo Chaves, from the Progressive Social Democratic Party, reminded his opponent Eliécer Feinzaig, from the Progressive Liberal Party, in the TSE debate, that he was suspended by the Comptroller General of the Republic from holding public office for four years for the actions of Feinzaig as Deputy Minister of Transport during the government of Miguel Ángel Rodríguez (1998-2002).
In turn, Chaves was subject to a strong sanction imposed by the World Bank when, as a senior official of this international organization, he was accused of sexual harassment by two of his subordinates.
Changes in voter preference
It must be borne in mind that Costa Rica’s electorate is very volatile and that conjunctural and subsequent situations can change electoral preference in a very short time.
This happened four years ago when two candidates who had only 5% of the electoral support jumped to contest the second round, as a result of a decision by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights on same-sex marriage.
That said, and awaiting the course of the campaign in recent days, everything indicates that José María Figueres, from the historic PLN, will advance to the second round. If the PUSC candidate Saborío suddenly drops (as is speculated to be happening), Figueres’ opponent is likely to be conservative Fabricio Alvarado. But of course everything can change.
Source: Folha
