The biggest festival on China’s calendar, known for leading to mass migrations and heating up economic sectors, the Chinese New Year – or Lunar New Year – began this Tuesday (1st) amid a more critical scenario in relation to Covid than ever before. observed in the Asian country in the same period last year.
Affected by the omicron variant, China saw daily coronavirus cases soar in December.
The figures began to fall in the third week of January, but have returned to present a slight increase in recent days. The moving average of new Covid cases was 62 this Monday (31), a value considered low in Western countries, but high by Chinese standards. On February 12 of last year, when the celebration of that year began, the moving average was around 10.
The capital Beijing alone recorded 20 new infections of the disease last Sunday (30), the highest number since June 2020. ), but also because the Winter Olympic Games, hosted in Beijing, start this week, on Friday (4).
Despite repeated requests from the authorities for citizens to stay at home during the holiday, many Chinese, who have not been reunited with their family for years, intend to travel even in the midst of the pandemic scenario. By the end of last week alone, 260 million had moved for this purpose (less than seen before the pandemic, but an increase of 46% compared to last year), according to official data released by the Associated Press news agency.
The number is expected to grow exponentially over the next 40 days, the holiday season in China — which has historically seen record volumes of migration. The Chinese regime predicts that, even with the omicron, 1.2 billion trips will be made, an increase of 36% compared to 2021.
The volume of displacement could challenge the “Covid zero” strategy adopted by Xi Jinping in an attempt to eliminate the virus. Until mid-January, at least three major cities were confined to contain local outbreaks of the disease, which affected around 20 million people.
The expectation is that the consequences of travel will be mitigated due to vaccination rates. The Asian country has about 85% of the population with the first complete vaccination schedule (two doses), and 22.9% have already received the third dose, according to information compiled by the Our World in Data platform.
Holiday travel and celebrations are projected to help revive sectors such as tourism, retail and transport. In the Lunar New Year last year, Chinese consumers spent about 821 billion yuan (£681 billion) on retail, up 28.7% from the 2020 holiday.
The chief economist at consultancy Greater China, Iris Pang, said she expects spending to increase by 10% from last year. “Even if they can’t travel, people still have money to spend, especially if they don’t spend on transportation. Some people have saved up since December for the holiday.”
On the other hand, in the hotel sector, expectations seem to have been dashed. A recent report by Trip.com, China’s largest online travel agency, found that hotel room reservations — whose prices can increase more than tenfold at this time of year — remain a far cry from what was seen in 2019, according to information published by South China Morning Post newspaper.
“It is an irreversible trend that more cancellations occur due to the increase in infections”, says the document. Major Chinese hotels have racked up a record loss of 41.4 billion yuan (R$34.3 billion) in 2020, a substantial setback for the tourism sector, which employs around 30 million people in the country.
In 2019, around 415 million Chinese traveled during the holiday. The number dropped to nearly zero in 2020 as the initial coronavirus outbreak resulted in strict nationwide lockdowns. Last year, the domestic travel industry served 256 million tourists during the holiday.
Another worrying factor is the fact that many Chinese industries close their doors or operate at reduced capacity for weeks during the celebrations, which hits retailers and importers who depend on products from the country.
A novelty for this Chinese New Year concerns the environment — more specifically, air quality. Traditionally, Chinese people celebrate the eve of the holiday by lighting fireworks, but the capital Beijing banned the activity for the first time. It was unclear whether the ban was related to the Winter Games, but the consequences could be felt.
The concentration of particulate matter (specifically PM2.5) was 5 micrograms per cubic meter on Monday night (Brasília time). On Chinese New Year’s Eve 2021, the average was 289 micrograms per cubic meter.
During a speech on the holiday last weekend, Xi again spoke of flags such as national unity and the legacy of the century-old Chinese Communist Party. “No matter what twists or challenges we may face, we must carry forward the great founding spirit of the Chinese CP,” he said, according to a report by the state-run Xinhua news agency.
“We must take a long-term perspective, be prepared for potential dangers even in times of calm, maintain strong unity and work hard to continue advancing the great cause of national rejuvenation.”
Source: Folha
