The explosion at the Al Ahli al Arabi hospital in Gaza it was not due to an Israeli missile strike but more likely to a Palestinian rocket that had missed, France’s military intelligence agency said.

Palestinian officials say 471 people were killed in that hospital late Tuesday night.

Gaza’s health ministry blamed Israel, which for its part says the explosion was caused by a rocket fired by Palestinian militants.

“Nothing allows us to say that it is an Israeli strike, the most likely (scenario) is that it was a Palestinian rocket with a warhead of about 5 kg that exploded“, said an executive of this service (DRM) speaking to journalists.

The DRM decided to make its analyzes public at the request of the French presidency, for reasons of transparency, he explained.

Based on analysis of the blast site, the DRM identified a hole – not a crater – measuring about one meter by 75 centimeters and 30-40 centimeters deep. “It takes about five kilograms of explosives to do this, certainly less than 10 kilograms,” the agency official commented. Whether it was a bomb or an Israeli missile is unlikely because these types of weapons carry a much larger payload and would have left a larger crater, he added. In contrast, the 5 kg payload is consistent with rockets manufactured or acquired by the Palestinians.

Since Tuesday, Palestinians and Israelis have been blaming each other over who is responsible for the strike. General Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israeli army, assured that there was no strike by land, sea or air against this hospital. Instead, there is “evidence” that Islamic Jihad, another Palestinian group working with Hamas, also designated “terrorist” by the US, the EU and Israel, is responsible.

Islamic Jihad said Israel was “lying” and that the tragedy was caused by a bomb dropped by an Israeli aircraft.

DRM also cast doubt on the 471 death toll announced by the Gaza Health Ministry. Such a tally would imply that the injured number in the thousands, the French official noted.

US intelligence agencies put the death toll at “between 100-300” while a European intelligence official told AFP it was much lower, “a few dozen, probably between 10-50”.