On October 15, Iran issued an ultimatum to Israel: Stop your attack on Gaza or we will be forced to take action.

Only a few hours later, the country’s mission to the United Nations softened the aggressive tone, assuring the world that its armed forces would not intervene in the conflict unless Israel attacked Iranian interests or civilians.

Iran, a longtime backer of Hamas in Gaza, is in a quandary as it tries to manage the crisis, according to Iranian officials, cited by Reuters.

To remain on the sidelines in the face of an all-out Israeli invasion of Gaza it will significantly reverse Iran’s strategy of regional dominance pursued for more than four decadesthe same officials argue.

However, any major US-backed attack on Israel could exact a heavy toll on Iran and stoke public anger against the clerics in a country already mired in economic crisis.

According to the same sources in Reuters, a consensus has so far been reached among Iran’s decision-makers, under which they have approved limited cross-border strikes by Hezbollah on Israeli military targets, as well as low-level attacks on US targets by other allied groups. in the area. However, the order says to prevent any major escalation that would drag Iran itself into the conflict.

Iran, meanwhile, has created a network of armed groups, replacing it, across the Middle East, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen.

Iran’s inaction on the field could be perceived as a sign of weakness by these armed groups, which have been Tehran’s main weapon of influence in the region for decades. It could also hurt the position of Iran, which has long championed the Palestinian cause against Israel, a country it refuses to recognize and views as an evil occupier.

Survival the highest priority

Israel, responding to a devastating attack by Hamas on October 7 that killed 1,400 Israelis, launched an airstrike in Gaza, killing at least 4,300 people.

Israel – a great military power – widely believed to have its own nuclear arsenal, though he would not confirm or deny it and has the support of the United States, which has moved two aircraft carriers and fighter jets to the eastern Mediterranean, in part as a warning to Iran.

“For the top leaders of Iran, especially the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the highest priority is the survival of the Islamic Republic,” said a senior Iranian diplomat.

“That’s why Iranian authorities have used strong rhetoric against Israel since the attack began, but have avoided direct military involvement, at least for now.”

Since October 7, Hezbollah has exchanged fire with Israeli forces along the Lebanese-Israeli border, primarily to keep Israeli forces busybut not to open a big new front.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who is known for threatening Israel in his speeches, has not spoken publicly since the crisis began.

Khamenei, the supreme leader, denied that Iran was involved in the Hamas attack on Israel, although he praised the damage done to Israel.

Israeli and Western security sources said Israel would attack Iran only if directly attacked by it, although they warned that the situation was volatile and could change if an attack on Israel by Hezbollah or those instigated by Iran in Syria or Iraq was causing heavy casualties.

A miscalculation by Iran or a larger-scale attack by its groups could change Israel’s approach, one of the Israeli sources added.

NEITHER GAZA OR LEBANON

Reconciliation alongside China’s mediation between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia has further complicated matters for leaders in Tehran who want to avoid jeopardizing this “fragile progress”, according to a former senior official.

Meanwhile, the Iranian people themselves could play a role in events unfolding across the region.

The rulers of Iran they cannot afford a direct involvement in the conflicth, as they struggle to quell growing dissent at home due to economic problems and social restrictions, two officials said. The country has been at the center of months of unrest sparked by the death last year of a young woman in custody.

The economic woes, caused mainly by US sanctions and mismanagement, have led many Iranians to criticize its decades-long policy of funneling funds to armed groups to expand the Islamic Republic in the Middle East.

The slogan “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I will sacrifice my life for Iran” has become a hallmark of anti-government protests in Iran for years, highlighting the people’s frustration with the establishment’s allocation of resources.

“Iran’s discretionary position highlights the delicate balance it must maintain between regional interests and domestic stability,” said the former senior Iranian official.