Exactly one year before the 2024 presidential election, polls have Joe Biden at a disadvantage, trailing his rival Donald Trump, and unable to capture the pulse of the deeply pessimistic American public.

A survey published by the New York Times on Sunday has the US president headed for defeat by Donald Trump, the favorite in the Republican primary process, in five of six key states — and, worse, losing appeal to young people and minorities.

In 2020, Joe Biden won in all six so-called swing states, the states characterized as vacillating, they vote for the candidate sometimes of one party and sometimes of the other.

But today, at least according to this survey, the 77-year-old Republican billionaire is outvoting his 80-year-old Democratic rival in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Of the six, all Joe Biden has left is Wisconsin.

“What should we hold back? In a year, the American people will fire ‘Joe Biden the Agyrtis’ and hire Donald Trump to make America great again,” the Republican campaign commented in a triumphant press release.

Another poll, conducted on behalf of CBS, has Donald Trump ahead in overall voting intentions, with 51% to Joe Biden’s 48%.

Obama 2012

“We’re going to win 2024 by putting our heads down and working, not worrying about a poll,” said Kevin Munoz, a spokesman for Joe Biden’s campaign, downplaying the importance of polls conducted a year before the election.

He cited the example of former President Barack Obama, who polls showed headed for a painful defeat but was comfortably re-elected a year later.

But for Democratic strategist David Axelrod, who ran the victorious 2012 campaign, the line-up today feels “reasonable concern.”

He explained via X: if Joe Biden “continues his campaign, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide (however) is whether and to what extent this is wise; whether and to what extent it is in his own interest or in the interest of the country.”

Pessimism

The polls published yesterday reveal that the octogenarian president is unable to close the gap that seems to separate him from American public opinion.

According to the poll conducted on behalf of CBS, 73% of citizens think that the country is doing badly.

The poll on behalf of the television network ABC News showed that 76% of Americans believe that their country is moving in the wrong direction.

67% of the poll sample published in the New York Times believes the same.

According to the latter, 71% of the sample considers that Mr. Biden is “too old” to exercise the presidency “effectively”.

Donald Trump’s age seems less of a concern to the electorate.

Public opinion seems unaffected by Joe Biden’s voluntarist speech, which assures that he is able to win over Donald Trump again.

Gauze

Americans are more concerned about their purchasing power, which is gnawing away at inflation, while many fear that the US will become involved in another war abroad.

Joe Biden repeats that he has “never been so optimistic” about America, extolling how strong its economy is and the international alliances it has forged.

Experts point out that foreign policy does not generally play a decisive role in the decisions of Americans in elections.

However, public support in Ukraine may collapse in the absence of military successes.

While the way Mr. Biden positioned himself when the Israel/Hamas war broke out angered young voters, as well as Arab Americans, two groups of voters who had generally been clearly in favor of him until now.

Thousands of people gathered yesterday Saturday in Washington to call for an immediate “ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip, with many criticizing the US president’s “complicity” in what they called “genocide” in the Palestinian enclave.

The Democrat insists on emphasizing Israel’s “right” to “defend itself.” He has so far rejected calls for a ceasefire, although he assures that he is working for humanitarian “pauses” in hostilities.