Germany is not expected to face gas supply problems next winter. Despite the interruption of Russian supplies, the situation is better than last year.

Although now without Russian natural gas, the Germans are no longer afraid of the possibility of a cold winter. Last year there were serious concerns about energy shortages, while Moscow emphasized that without Gazprom Germany would freeze. Despite the fact that the Russian state-owned company has completely cut off supplies for a year, now only 14% of respondents fear supply problems in the coming winter.

Germany is prepared

64% of Germans estimate that, although there will be difficulties in supply, no major problems will arise, while 18% are convinced that Germany will not face the slightest problem. In other words, “four out of five respondents believe that Germany is prepared for the coming winter,” writes the Federal Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), which conducted the survey.

“Thanks to the cooperation between the energy industry and supply security policies over the past year and a half, we can be relatively optimistic,” says Kerstin Andree, president of BDEW’s executive board. The chairman of the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA), Klaus Müller, also agrees that currently “the supply situation is much better than last year”.

As Miller points out, Germany’s natural gas storage facility capacity reached 100% on November 5, while steady imports and energy savings also contributed significantly to the improvement.

The possible risk scenarios

BNetzA considers the risk of gas supply shortages to be “low” if temperatures fluctuate within normal levels. So there could be problems if temperatures were extremely cold, as in the scenario of a winter “with severe cold weather and average daily temperatures reaching as low as -13 degrees Celsius, as happened in the winter of 2012”.

In such a case, due to the cold, it is expected that energy savings in Germany will amount to only 10% of the average consumption of natural gas in the period 2018-2021. In addition, Russia may stop transporting natural gas through Ukraine to Europe from November 2023. This would mean that Germany, which has the largest gas storage infrastructure in Europe, would have to increase exports to Austria and southeast Europe. Furthermore, an eventual reduction in liquefied natural gas imports from Belgium and the Netherlands is also possible, because low temperatures may be recorded in these countries, which will result in an increase in domestic demand.

However, even if the transit of natural gas through Ukraine were to be cut off completely, Germany would be at risk of running out of natural gas supplies in February, and that only in two cases: first, if households and industry did not reduce consumption at all of natural gas, while at the same time exports increase and, secondly, if LNG imports from neighboring countries also decrease.

That is why Müller calls on the German population to continue saving natural gas, as it did last winter. “No one needs to catch a cold,” says Miller, “but at the same time, people should continue to limit consumption as much as possible.” Besides, as he states, this is also a way to reduce the cost of living: “Savings during the period October 2022 – September 2023 have reduced the cost of living of an average household by approximately 440 euros.”

When could shortages occur?

In summary, a natural gas shortage could occur in Germany only under five conditions: if the winter is particularly cold, if households and industry do not continue to save energy, if Russia immediately cuts off natural gas transit through Ukraine (something for which there are no serious indications), if south-eastern Europe is largely supplied by German gas storage facilities, and if LNG imports from Belgium and the Netherlands are significantly reduced.

The case in which all or most of these conditions will occur at the same time cannot be completely ruled out, but this seems unlikely. The remarkable thing is that none of these scenarios assume a physical shortage of liquefied gas on the world market. That is why BNetzA firmly believes that LNG producers worldwide will be able to meet the increased demand even in the event of a very cold winter in Europe.