Although a victory for the Dutch far-right PVV party would whet the appetite of European nationalists for a return to “national identities”, the likelihood of Geert Wilders taking the reins of the country – or even entering government – remains complicated.

Wednesday’s Dutch parliamentary election resulted in a victory for the far-right PVV, which took 37 seats out of 150, followed by former EU commissioner Frans Timmermans’ coalition of Socialists and Greens (PvdA/GL), which took 25 seats .

Wilders declared that the PVV “can no longer be discredited”, and showed confidence that it “will govern”.

“Such a magnificent victory must be respected. That’s what the voters say, they want something different. It would be very undemocratic if the voters’ choice was left out,” he said.

On the other hand, Timmermans said he was “disappointed” with the results. According to what he said, he was “hoping for more”, while admitting that he “couldn’t convince enough people”.

At the same time, he called for the left to unite as a “fist” in defense of democracy and the rule of law, in order to harshly criticize the PVV’s anti-immigration rhetoric.

“It doesn’t matter to us where your base is,” shouted Timmermans, “you are welcome in the Netherlands if you are trying to escape war and violence, that will never change for us.”

What happens now?

Looking at the election results, two options exist: Either the liberal VVD, the center-right NSC and the far-right PVV will form a right-wing coalition – perhaps with the support of smaller parties such as the farmers’ BBB – or Timmermans’ PvdA/GL bloc will try to govern with the NSC and VVD and the liberal D66.

In a week at most, a parliamentary debate will be held based on the new seats to discuss the election results. The parties will then appoint a mediator, who will be asked to talk to all parties and explore possible and viable coalitions.

The mediator will then put together a coalition and Parliament will choose and appoint one of the party leaders as the new prime minister, who will then have to form the coalition. This process, however, can take months.

Although everything is up in the air and no door is closed, in both cases, the parties’ diametrically opposed views on key issues portend difficult coalition talks – and difficult governance afterwards.

While the VVD has remained open to a partnership with the far-right, party leader Dilan Yesilgoz said on Tuesday that she would not support Wilders as prime minister because of his extreme views.

“I don’t see Wilders becoming prime minister because I don’t see him being able to form a majority. Now it’s his turn to show if he can do it,” Yesilgoz said on election night.

The head of the NSC, Peter Omcich, repeatedly stated during the election campaign that his party would not cooperate with the PVV because of its anti-Islamic and anti-immigrant stance, which goes against the Dutch constitution. However, nothing has been ruled out after the election result.

Omcich says he wants to be in the new cabinet, but admits it won’t be “easy”. “The Netherlands should be governed [το συντομότερο δυνατό]and we are available for that,” he stated.

While the VVD and NSC remain open to negotiations, Wilders has in turn said he is willing to make concessions on the more hard-line of his policy proposals.

“I understand very well that the parties do not want to be in government with a party that wants unconstitutional measures. We are not going to talk about mosques, Korans and Islamic schools,” Wilders said.

Despite the PVV’s strong anti-European, anti-Islamic rhetoric and skepticism about climate change, entering a coalition government with the NSC and VVD will likely soften their tone.

For example, even with the PVV’s anti-European stance, a right-wing coalition would still support a united front on the bloc’s external dimension, including global trade, defense cooperation and strategic autonomy, as championed by the VVD and the NSC in elections the programs.

As for a possible centrist coalition, Timmermans’ PvdA/G and the VVD are historically rival parties. The VVD tends towards the Eurosceptic and fiscally conservative end of the European liberal party family. In addition, the green-socialist alliance was formed to oust the VVD from the government.

Euractiv’s partner, Europe Elects, suggests early elections are a “realistic scenario” given the adverse political landscape.

The far right of the EU is waking up

Meanwhile, Wilders’ victory has reignited far-right rhetoric across the bloc, particularly from the so-called “Little Trumps”.

Europe’s far-right party leaders who have openly expressed their support for former US President Donald Trump are now celebrating Wilders’ victory ahead of June’s European elections.

Most of them are seen as Trump’s allies in Europe, and Trump’s possible return to power in Washington is expected to shake up EU politics.

“Everywhere in Europe, citizens want political change!” commented X, the German far-right party AfP.

“The wind of change is here! Congratulations to Geert Wilders on his victory in the Dutch elections,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was quick to comment immediately after the exit polls were published.

The leader of the Spanish Vox (ECR) on the other hand, Santiago Abascal, also congratulated Wilders in a festive tone saying that “more and more Europeans are demanding in the streets and at the ballot box to defend their nations, their borders and their rights”.

Italy’s conservative Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who struggles to distance herself from the far-right, has yet to react to the news.

However, her League (ID) coalition partner Matteo Salvini appeared to be quick to congratulate Wilders, calling him a “historic ally of the League”.

“A new Europe is possible,” Salvini wrote in X.

Also in Paris, far-right leader Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National (ID) congratulated the Dutch winner in X: “Congratulations to Geert Wilders and the PVV for their spectacular victory in the parliamentary elections, which confirms the growing support for the defense of national identities”.