For the first time since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it looks like it could win, the Economist magazine reports in an analysis, blaming it on the West’s inadequate policies.

Russia’s president put his country on war footing and consolidated his power. It has procured military supplies from abroad and is helping to turn the “global south” against America. The crucial issue is that it undermines the belief in the West that Ukraine can – and should – emerge from the war as a prosperous European democracy.

The West could do much more to frustrate Mr Putin. If he chose, it could develop industrial and economic resources which Russia’s comparatively meager. However, fatalism, complacency and a shocking lack of strategic vision stand in the way, especially in Europe. For its own sake, as well as for Ukraine’s sake, the West urgently needs to shake off its lethargy.

The West could do much more to frustrate Mr Putin. If it chose, it could develop industrial and economic resources that make those of Russia look meager. However, fatalism, complacency and a shocking lack of strategic vision stand in the way, especially in Europe. For its own sake, as well as for the sake of Ukraine, the West urgently needs to shake off its lethargy.

The reason why a Putin victory is now seen as possible is that it will be about endurance, not land grabs. Neither army is able to drive the other from the land they currently control. Ukraine’s counterattack is stuck, and winter is coming. Russia is losing over 900 men a day in the battle to capture Avdiivkaof a city in the Donetsk region, in a war that could last many years.

The reason why a Putin victory is possible is that victory is about endurance, not land capture. Neither army is able to drive the other from the territory they currently control. Ukraine’s counteroffensive has stalled. Russia is losing over 900 men a day in the battle to capture Avdiivka, a town in the Donbas region. This is a war of defenders and may last many years.

However, the battlefield shapes politics. Momentum affects morale. If Ukraine backs down, the reactions in Kiev will become stronger. So will the voices in the West who say that sending money and weapons to Ukraine is wrong. At least in 2024, Russia will be in a stronger position to fightbecause it will have more drones and artillery shells, because its military has developed successful electronic warfare tactics against some Ukrainian weapons, and because Mr. Putin will tolerate horrific casualties among his own men. Increasing foreign support partly explains it advantage of Russia on the battlefield. Putin has acquired drones from Iran and shells from North Korea.

He has worked to convince much of the global South that he has little to gain from what is happening in Ukraine. Turkey and Kazakhstan have become conduits for goods that feed the Russian war machine. A Western plan to cap Russian oil revenue by capping the price of crude at $60 a barrel failed because a parallel trading structure emerged beyond the West. The price of Russian crude is $64, up nearly 10% since early 2023.

Putin is also winning because he has strengthened his position at home. He is now telling the Russians, something absurd, that they are caught in a struggle for survival against the West. Ordinary Russians may not like war, but they are used to it. The elite control the economy and make a lot of money. Putin can afford to pay lifetime wages to the families of those who fight and die.

In the face of all this, no wonder the mood in Kiev is darker. Politics is back as people battle for influence. Volodymyr Zelenskythe president of Ukraine, and Valery Zaluznyhis senior general, they have disagreed. An internal poll shows that corruption scandals and concerns about Ukraine’s future have hurt Zelensky’s standing with voters.

Western governments insist they are as committed as ever to Ukraine. However, polls around the world show that many doubt it. In America, the Biden administration is struggling to get Congress to release more than $60 billion worth of funding. Next year’s election campaign will soon enter the final stretch. If Donald Trump is elected president, having promised peace in a short period of time, America could suddenly stop supplying weapons altogether.

Europe should prepare for this dire eventuality – and to slow down American aid, whoever is in the White House. On the contrary, European leaders carry on as if bigoted Joe Biden will always be in charge. The European Union has promised Ukraine 50 billion euros, but the money is blocked by Hungary and, potentially, a fiscal mess in Germany. In December the EU should signal that it is ready to start talks on Ukraine’s accession. However, many believe that the process will be intentionally aborted, because enlargement is difficult and threatens vested interests. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was recorded (during a phone prank) saying that Europe is tired. You’d think a Trump presidency would bolster support for Ukraine as Europe took responsibility for its own defense. One leader, speaking privately, predicts that support will in fact be fragmented.

That would be disastrous. By 2025 the strain of war may begin to wear on Putin. Russians may increasingly resent forced mobilizations, inflation and the diversion of social spending to the military. Howeversimply hoping that his regime will collapse makes no sense. He could stay in power for years and if he does, he will threaten war because that is his justification for domestic repression and the suffering of his people. He has destroyed his country’s prospects by isolating it from Europe and driving its most active people into exile. Without war, the vacuum of his rule would be on full display.

Europe must therefore plan with Putin in mind as the main long-term threat to its security. Russia will rearm. He will have combat experience. Europe’s defenses should be designed to prevent Putin from sensing weakness in its ranks — especially if he doubts President Trump’s willingness to fight if a NATO country is attacked.

The best way to prevent the Russian president would be for Europe to demonstrate its resolve by immediately showing that it is fully committed to a prosperous, democratic, western Ukraine. Weapons matter, especially air defenses and long-range missiles to hit Russian supply lines, so it’s vital for America to approve the last tranche of aid. Because arsenals are already depleted, more work is needed to increase the capacity of Western arms manufacturers. Sanctions could be more effectively targeted to divide the regime from the elite.

Political action in Europe is also necessary. Putin will attack Ukraine’s cities and overthrow its society to sabotage the country’s transformation into a Western democracy. In response, Europe should redouble its efforts to ensure that Ukraine moves forward, with the promise of money and EU membership. European leaders have failed to recognize the magnitude of the task – indeed, too many seem to shy away from it. . This is nonsense. They should remember Leon Trotsky: they may not be interested in the war, but the war is interested in them.