Six and a half million voters are called to the polls in Serbia tomorrow, Sunday, to elect 250 representatives to the parliament. 18 parties and coalitions of parties are vying for the citizens’ vote, while at the same time as the parliamentary elections, municipal elections are held in sixty municipalities, including Belgrade.

The Serbian Progressive Party carried out the largest, organizationally and financially, pre-election campaign, which was led by the President of the Republic, Aleksandar Vucic. The ruling party is the only one that held pre-election rallies in all major cities of Serbia, where Vucic was the keynote speaker. At the same time, he also dominated the field of information. According to data from the Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA) the political actors of the Serbian Progressive Party occupied 75% of the television time devoted to the elections. The issues raised by Aleksandar Vucic mainly concern governance since 2012 when he took office. Economic stability, growth, increases in pensions and wages, infrastructure projects topped the agenda of issues dealt with by Vucic. He promised that in four years the average pension will reach 650 euros net and the average salary 1,400 euros.

Unlike previous election contests, he did not raise the issue of Kosovo, although he made sure to mention that he would never recognize its independence. With the slogan “Serbia must not stop”, Vucic argued in his speeches that if the mandate to his party is not renewed, a period of economic and social crisis will follow.

He also warned of the possibility of political instability, pointing out that if the opposition forms a government, he will not be able to remain president of the Republic.

The eight pro-European parties, which make up the “Serbia against violence” coalition, in their election campaign denounced corruption, the absence of democratic institutions, the manipulation of justice and the media by the authorities. The leaders of this coalition argued that in Serbia there is a regime of terror and intimidation of citizens that is maintained by the cooperation of organized crime and the state. At the central gathering held by this coalition in Belgrade, its leaders promised that if they receive the trust of the citizens “those who have committed crimes against the people and the country will be held accountable in justice and no one will receive a pardon.”

The Socialist Party of Serbia led by Foreign Minister Ivica during the election campaign mainly appealed to those nostalgic for the era of Slobodan Milosevic, arguing that there was a welfare state then. After all, Marko Milosevic, grandson of the late former president of Serbia who was accused of war crimes, is also on the Socialist ballot, in a prominent position. Ivica Dacic supported the continuation of cooperation at the government level with Vucic’s party and did not hide his ambition to become prime minister in the next government. The Socialists also couldn’t hide their love for Putin after senior party figures appeared at a campaign rally in Panchevo wearing T-shirts emblazoned with the letter “Zeta”, the symbol of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The “Hope” and “National Gathering” coalitions, which make up far-right, nationalist parties, during the pre-election period put the issue of Kosovo in the spotlight. They argued that Belgrade should reject the European plan to normalize relations with Pristina even at the cost of the European perspective. These coalitions want Serbia to establish special relations with Russia and China.

All polls conducted during the pre-election period show that Vucic’s party will prevail in the parliamentary elections.

The latest poll by the magazine “New Serbian Political Thought”, published on December 12, gives the Serbian Progressive Party 39.8%. This percentage does not ensure self-reliance, however with the 8.9% estimated to be received by the Socialists, a governing majority in parliament is ensured. After all, these two parties have been co-governing since 2012 and it will not be difficult to continue this cooperation.

According to the same poll, the coalition “Serbia against violence” will receive 25.6% of the votes. The two coalitions of nationalists will receive a combined 12.5%. No other party is expected to exceed the 3% threshold for entering parliament. The minority parties, for which simple proportionality applies and have no limit for entering parliament, are expected to elect at least 10 deputies.

Regarding the municipal elections, the opinion polls show a victory for the opposition for the municipality of Belgrade. It is doubtful, however, whether they will be able to take over the government of the municipality, since there is always the risk that some councilors will resign and the opposition will not be able to elect a mayor. After all, this happened in the previous elections, when municipal councilors from nationalist parties joined the party of Aleksandar Vucic.