Under the shadow of the most feared Russian military exercises so far in the Ukraine crisis, both Moscow and Kiev have signaled openness to negotiations to avoid escalating tensions turning into open conflict.
Russia wants to establish a new security logic in the region that removes the threat of NATO (western military alliance) forces near its borders, with an eventual entry of Ukrainians into the club of 30 countries.
She did so in the context of the crisis that has been going on since 2014, when she annexed Crimea precisely to avoid the absorption of Kiev into the Western framework when a government allied with Vladimir Putin was overthrown. She has also helped pro-Russian separatist rebels in the east of the country, whose autonomy is at the heart of the dispute.
“There have been positive signs that the solution for Ukraine can only be based on the Minsk Accords. Kiev should have done this a long time ago, so there are positive signs and others not so much,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said. , on the morning of this Wednesday (9).
He was referring to the defense of the agreements – which established a precarious ceasefire but were never fully accepted by Ukraine for ceding local control to the rebels – made by French President Emmanuel Macron the day before.
He had been on Monday (7) with Putin and the next day with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. While maintaining the position of NATO and the US, contrary to Russia’s greater demands, Macron blinked in accepting the main Russian one-off demand – which, in practice, would solve his problem, because NATO does not accept members with such serious territorial disputes.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba hit the nail when he said that “there is a real possibility of advances” and the horseshoe, when he denied the idea of ​​the Minsk arrangement “under the Russian interpretation”. As this is ambiguous to say the least, observers believe there may be a way forward.
On the other hand, Kuleba avoided controversy and said that “there was no betrayal” on the part of Macron when citing the agreement proposed by Putin.
On the diplomatic side, other moves took place. The European Union invited Russia to participate in negotiations on security on the continent within the framework of the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe), an entity of which Moscow is already a member.
There were still talks between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu to discuss the crisis. And, seeking to regain the space lost to Macron, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is going to Warsaw to speak with President Andrzej Duda.
Meanwhile, the drums of war follow their rhythm. Russia, which has deployed around 130,000 troops around Ukraine since November to assert its point in the negotiations, has begun the active phase of the mega-exercise it is promoting with Belarus.
A dictatorship allied to Moscow, which for years avoided becoming so under Putin’s influence, Belarus lies to the north of Ukraine — its border, a mere 200 km by road to Kiev. With pressure on the streets against dictator Aleksandr Lukachenko, after yet another election to keep him in power he has held since 1994, Minsk has capitulated politically.
There are now 30,000 Russian troops in the country, two battalions with advanced S-400 anti-aircraft systems and several planes, including the modern Su-35S fighter jets, the best available in any quantity in Putin’s Air Force.
According to NATO, it is the largest Russian displacement in its neighbor since the time when both countries were part of the Soviet Union, the communist empire that died in 1991. Ukraine, on the other hand, has been in a constant state of specific exercises since the beginning of the crisis, too. for the purpose of propaganda of readiness with the western allies, with published photos of tanks and soldiers.
The Russian president, according to the Kremlin, said that everyone would leave after the ten days of exercises. It could be, but the fact is that it will be a period of high tension in Europe, given that it doesn’t take much to turn a simulation into reality.
Russia says it doesn’t want to invade Ukraine and, in fact, would have a lot to risk if it did. More limited operations are on the menu, however, and the presence of six amphibious assault ships this weekend in exercises in the Black Sea raises fears of some one-off action to overland pro-Russian areas of the east to Crimea, for example.​
Still, with all this smoke, any move on Putin’s part seems unlikely. The Russian so far has shown himself willing to exercise his forces and show himself ready to use them, which is different from taking the initiative. But this assessment is based on evidence.
Either way, US forces in Poland have been instructed to prepare for the withdrawal of their citizens from the country in the event of conflict. It is part of the psychological game that the Joe Biden administration has also been playing, with threats of sanctions and harsh rhetoric against Putin. On Wednesday, the Pentagon spokesman again criticized Moscow, alleging new troop movements near the border. “Every day he increases his options, every day he increases his ability,” said John Kirby.
Finally, according to Japanese TV network NHK, Tokyo has accepted a US request to ship liquefied natural gas by ships to Europe in case a conflict breaks out. It is more pressure on the Russian president, who has the supply of 40% of the gas consumed on the continent as one of his economic weapons.
