Oleksii Tilnenko hoped so this year would be the year Ukraine kicked Russia out of pieces of occupied land. Although in 2023 he said goodbye to us, his hometown, the southern city of Kherson, is still pounding and the front line has hardly moved at all.

Tilnenko, who fled Kherson last year and lives in Kiev where he helps internally displaced people (IDPs), believes Russia is trying to rebuild its vastly outnumbered armed forces and step up its war effort.

“The hope is that the West can somehow mobilize, somehow get its defense industry to renew equipment and produce what we need to defend our ordinary citizens,” the 36-year-old said.

Twenty-one months into Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II, battles rage with no end in sight and neither side has struck a decisive blow on the battlefield.

Ukrainian soldiers, living in frozen trenches, they admit they are exhaustedthey don’t have the strength to spend a second winter in full-scale war against a resource-rich, nuclear-armed superpower that has more than three times the population of Ukraine.

The Ukrainians know they must secure Western military aid to continue — and that it will be more difficult, with the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza distracting the international community.

Russian troops, which hold about 17.5% of Ukraine, are again on the offensive in the east after largely withstanding a Ukrainian counter-offensive that failed to breach extensive defensive lines in the south and east.

The gloomy outlook is in stark contrast to the optimism prevailing in Kiev a year ago, when Ukrainians defied predictions and pushed back Russian troops around their capital before retaking territory in the northeast and south, including the city of Kherson.

Because it matters

The toll continues to rise in a war in which hundreds of thousands of people have already been killed or injured, Ukrainian towns and villages have been destroyed, millions have been forced from their homes, and hundreds of thousands more have been taken into custody.

Drone and missile attacks are part of everyday life. In the northeastern city Kharkiv, schools are being built underground so that children are not killed in airstrikes.

Tilnenko heads Crimea SOS, an organization that helps five million internally displaced people. He says he has no plans to return to Kherson because of the constant threat of artillery and air-guided bombs.

He feels that Western military aid should have come more quickly, in greater volumes and in a less piecemeal manner. Air power crucial to the counterattack, he says, is particularly lacking this year, and the F-16 fighter jets promised to Ukraine by the West have yet to be delivered.

The granting of crucial military and financial aid fromthe west no longer comes unhindered.

US President Joe Biden has made winning Ukraine a foreign policy goal ahead of his November 2024 re-election bid, but the fate of Biden’s proposed $60 billion aid package is uncertain due to opposition from some Republicans.

A separate proposal for four-year military aid from the European Union of 20 billion euros has also met with backlash from some members of the Union.

The lack of significant progress on the battlefield this year will also hurt Biden politically in the election, potentially heralding the return of former President Donald Trump, who asked Congress this summer to withhold aid to Ukraine.

What it means for 2024

Some Ukrainians, including Tilnenko, believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin will use any lull in fighting to build up further defenses and prepare the Russian military for a new offensive.

Putin he may feel he can escalate Russia’s war effort just as is expected to secure a new six-year term in the Kremlin in the elections to be held next March.

Ukraine was also due to hold presidential elections in March, but that will now not happen due to martial law.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ended speculation that an alternative could be found last month, saying now was “not the time” for elections.

The strain of war is likely to weigh on society and the political landscape in the coming year. The ongoing reforms to make recruitment and conscription more efficient highlight the sensitive but important issues through which the government will have to navigate.

Tilmenko says war weariness is a fact.

“Everyone is tired. Soldiers are tired, victims are tired, IDPs are tired. But there is no escape. We can’t just give up and say, “ok, fine.” If anything, so many people have died. Hopefully it will get easier. And we’ll see how it goes.”