Finns vote on Sunday to elect their new presidenta post with greater demands following the escalation of tensions with neighboring Russia following the outbreak of war in Ukraine.

The upheaval in the European geopolitical landscape will be at the center of the term of the next Head of State, who handles foreign policy in close cooperation with the government.

He is also the supreme commander of the armed forces of Finland, which last year became the 31st member of NATO, to the dismay of Russia.

For the first round of the presidential elections on Sunday, dFinland’s political figures are leading among nine candidates, according to opinion polls: conservative former prime minister Alexander Stubb and former foreign minister Pekka Haavisto from the Green party.

“The next president of the Republic will be above all a president of the West, a president of NATO and one of our most important relationships is the partnership with the USA,” said Stubb in a televised interview.

Relations between Finland and Russia, which share a 1,340 km border, have deteriorated significantly since February 2022 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

After its neighbor joins NATO in April 2023, Moscow has promised “countermeasures”.

In August, Finland experienced an influx of visa-free migrants at its eastern border. Helsinki then accused Moscow of orchestrating a migrant crisis on its doorstep and closed its border with Russia in November.

“Subtle differences” between candidates

In the post-Cold War period, Helsinki promoted the development of economic relations with its large neighbor in the hope that this would lead to the strengthening of democracy.

Sauli Niinisto, who is stepping down after serving two six-year terms, once boasted close ties to Vladimir Putin before becoming one of the Russian president’s fiercest opponents in Europe.

In this context, the presidential candidates are all defending Finland’s independence and its new role as a NATO member, said Hanna Vaas, vice chancellor of the department of social sciences at the University of Helsinki.

“They all emphasize Finland’s self-sufficiency, that the country must undertake its defense independently and actively contribute to building a common European defense and the cooperation of the countries of northern Europe,” Vaas told AFP.

The election will be mostly about personality, said Tuomas Forsberg, professor of foreign policy at the University of Tampere.

“The differences are subtle” in terms of foreign policy, he said.

“It is more about electing a personality, taking into account his solvency, his credibility, and his characteristics as head of foreign policy,” he told AFP.

Second round on February 11

A poll published Monday by the Helsingin Sanomat newspaper shows for Sunday’s first round the 55-year-old Stubb, head of the conservative National Coalition, leading with 22% of the vote, and Haavisto in second place with 20%.

“They both have very strong domestic and foreign policy experience, which voters count on,” Vass said.

Conservative Alexander Stubb was Prime Minister of Finland from 2014 to 2015. Pekka Haavisto has served in various ministerial positions.

Their vision for the position is similar but their personalities are different, Forsberg said.

“Alex (Stubbe) is more of a representative of the right and Haavisto of the left, although Haavisto has tried to emphasize that there is nothing ‘red’ about him, that he follows a moderate path as a ‘Green,'” according to Forsberg.

In the event of a second round on Sunday, February 11, if no candidate gets 50% of the votes in the first, “the debates could be decisive,” the professor added.

In third place, according to the poll, is the far-right candidate of the Finns Party, Jusi Hala-aho, with 18%, followed by former European Commissioner Olli Rehn, who is supported by the Center Party, with 12%.

According to Forsberg, Hala-aho and Wren can again surprise voters and make it to the second round. But Hala-aho is too polarizing to hope to achieve that, according to Forsberg.

In a climate characterized by skepticism towards politicians, Finns believe in the presidential institution, according to Vaas.

“The president is considered a strong personality, whom the citizens trust,” she said.

Participation in this particular electoral process is usually around 70%.