Nikki Haley seems set to continue the race for the nomination of the Republican Party, now being the only challenger to Donald Trump. However, the chances of the former US ambassador to the U.N. they don’t look good.

The former president is clearly ahead in the polls, having already comfortably won the first two primaries – in Iowa and New Hampshire. So what is Nikki Haley up to?

First scenario: Trump retires

If Trump wins the November 5 presidential election, he will be 78 years old when he takes office. He will thus become the oldest politician to assume the presidency. When current President Joe Biden took office, he was a few months younger than Trump will be.

Although Trump boasts that he is in excellent health, the tests he took during his time in the White House showed that he is obese and suffering from heart problems. Therefore, it is possible that Haley speculates that Trump will be forced to retire due to his health.

In addition, the Republican politician faces problems with justice. Among other things, four criminal proceedings have been initiated against him – also regarding his attempts to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential elections.

In a purely theoretical context, Trump could even govern from prison. In any case, justice moves at a slow pace, so the issuance of any conviction against Trump seems unlikely before the presidential election.

In any case, the possibility remains open that Trump will even be excluded from the primary elections of the Republican Party. His opponents have filed lawsuits, claiming that Trump has lost the right to run for a second term in the White House because of his role in the 2021 storming of the Capitol by protesters. The states of Maine and Colorado have already ruled that Trump is ineligible. can be a candidate, while the decision of the Supreme Court of the United States is expected on February 8.

In the unlikely event that Trump is ultimately disqualified from the election, Haley will have the opportunity to fill that void. Then, of course, he will have to rely on the support of Trump’s supporters, whom he has recently attacked by, for example, the fact that he is old. So far, however, he has been reluctant to categorically and unequivocally condemn his lies about alleged incidents of fraud in previous elections – because that would not be able to reach his extreme supporters.

Second scenario: Haley as Trump’s vice president

At the same time in the U.S. there is much speculation as to who or what Trump will choose as his running mate in the presidential election. There are various names of extreme radical Trump followers who have remained loyal to the Republican politician. As a rule, however, candidates in presidential elections tend to choose as a running mate someone who can appeal to voters with whom they themselves have little appeal.

In this light, Haley would be ideal: she is a woman, the daughter of Indian immigrants, and is considered more moderate than Trump, having a significant appeal to moderate voters as well, which was also proven in the recent primaries in New Hampshire, where, although she was defeated, she managed to gather 43% of the votes. “I think Trump should probably pick her as his running mate,” political strategist Mark Penn recently observed in an interview with Politico.

But it’s also known how proud Trump is, so it’s doubtful he’ll overlook Haley’s verbal attacks on him. The former president may also fear that the one-time governor of South Carolina will not be particularly loyal to him or that she will overshadow him. Even when he served as ambassador to the U.S. to the U.N. during Trump’s presidency, Haley has shown “some willingness” to oppose the White House, as the Washington Post recalls.

However, Haley has ruled out running for president as Trump’s running mate, which is to be expected given that we are in the middle of an election race. Besides, in the past he had stated that he would not run for the presidency of the Republican Party, if Trump is among the candidates.

Third scenario: Haley as an independent candidate

Polls show that, if the presidential election again raises the dilemma of Trump or Biden, many Republican supporters of Haley will prefer the Democratic candidate. Haley could run as an independent — and then she could pick up a significant number of votes that would otherwise have gone to Trump.

However, this scenario seems unlikely. Unlike Liz Cheney, Haley has never expressed a desire to prevent a Trump re-election at all costs. Her political enemy is Biden. Nevertheless, Trump knows that Haley could deprive him of victory. And this strengthens her position.

Fourth scenario: Haley in the White House in 2028

In the USA. it is stipulated that no one can serve as president more than twice. Therefore, if Trump wins the November election, he will not be able to run again in the future. So in the event that Haley is Trump’s vice president, she will also be his natural successor for the White House.

But Trump could lose to Biden again – in which case it would be in Haley’s best interest not to run as Trump’s running mate and thus not be associated with this electoral defeat. If Haley doesn’t join Trump’s camp at the last minute and he loses, the politician could essentially say “I told you so,” writes Elaine Kamark of the US Brookings Institution. She could then lead the new generation of the Republican Party and be a candidate in the 2028 election.

It is unknown what strategy Haley will ultimately choose. In any case, it is possible that it is not even up to her how long she can remain a candidate, since in the U.S. money is what defines election campaigns. If Haley loses the trust of her major sponsors, then she will be forced to retire. That’s something that won’t be seen until after the primary election in late February in her home state of South Carolina. And even there Trump appears to be leading by a margin.