Two great wars. One in Ukraine and one in Gaza. A world divided in two. In the West and in Russia with its allies (mainly China, Iran, North Korea). The terrorist attack on the evening of March 22 at the concert venue in the suburbs of Moscow was the deadliest in recent years. With 133 dead officially (143 dead according to Russian media information), the scale of the tragedy surpasses that of the Bataclan and Paris, when ISIS had carried out multiple attacks in the French capital. At that time, however, the rift in Russia-West relations had not manifested itself. At that time, on November 13, 2015, war had not yet broken out in Ukraine. Then, nine years ago, the planet was not in danger of a World War III.

On the morning of March 23rd, dawned in an even more complex setting. The terrorist attack on the outskirts of Moscow is a blow to the great power’s prestige, but at the same time, it may open up the Aeolian Ascium to storms that humanity may not be able to handle.

From the first moment, the Russian side hinted that it considers Ukraine responsible for the terrorist attack, or even that it is somehow related to the bloody operation of the four arrested. The information that the terrorists were arrested near the border with Ukraine, where they had “planned an escape window”, is confirmed by every source in Russia and strongly supported by the Russian president himself, Vladimir Putin.

In his speech, Putin made it clear that the Russian side “sees” the source of the terrorist attack in Ukraine, although ISIS was quick to claim responsibility. Moscow does not accept Islamic State’s claim of responsibility, saying it is continuing to investigate and interrogate those arrested to gather all the evidence and decide its next moves.

The scene, however, is even more complicated, as leaks in the Russian mass media hint at the involvement of other foreign states, especially members of NATO. Russian media reported information that the Estonia does not condemn the attack on the concert center, which the Russians say may “indicate” its involvement in some way.

At the same time, the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, openly expressed his concern about the Kremlin’s next actions. Tusk referred to the possibility that Russia could use the terrorist attack as a pretext to intensify its aggression.

The concern is reasonable. If the Russia sticks to the Ukraine scenario or even worse, involves other countries, then escalation should be considered very likely. And the consequences will be unpredictable.

His statement is typical Gennady Zyuganova member of the State Duma in Russia: “Kiev may be involved in the terrorist attack.”

The United States and Ukraine insist, the first that it has no evidence of Kiev’s involvement, and the second that it is not involved. The insistence of Washington and Kiev, however, does not seem to appease the Kremlin, which has made it clear that it will rely entirely on its own investigation and intelligence, wherever that leads.

Analysts do not rule out the “exploitation” of the terrorist attack as a pretext for escalating the war in Ukraine, even using heavier weapons, which we all know that the Moscow. Could a potential escalation in Ukraine be extended?

The answer is “yes”. Already the world is hanging by a thread. Any event can lead to chaos. And a terrorist act with hundreds of dead is more than just “any event”. If Moscow somehow connects the attack in the suburbs of Moscow with Kiev, then the developments may be chained.

What we know about the attack

The four men, armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles, arrived at Crocus City Hall at around 19.40 local and Greek time in a minivan.

The men calmly walked towards the metal detectors at Crocus City Hall, point-blank shooting the terrified citizens as they fell screaming to the ground in a hail of bullets.

Russian media began reporting around 20:15 local time about the attack at the concert hall in Krasnogorsk, on the northwestern outskirts of the Russian capital.

Rescue services, as reported by the Interfax news agency, said the attackers “opened fire on security members at the entrance to the concert hall” before “starting to shoot at the crowd”.

According to a reporter for the state-run Ria Novosti news agency, people in camouflage uniforms stormed the hall before opening fire and throwing “a grenade or an incendiary bomb, which caused a fire.”

“The people in the hall fell to the floor to protect themselves from the fire for about 15-20 minutes, after they started running out in panic,” said the same source.

Russian investigators described how the men set fire to the building. Some eyewitnesses said they poured some kind of flammable liquid on the seats and curtains before setting it on fire.

An AFP journalist who arrived hours after the attack saw black smoke and flames rising above the roof of the concert hall, which can accommodate up to 6,000 people. According to media, a part of the roof collapsed. The fire was then brought under control.

The account of the victims

Russia’s Investigative Committee announced that the death toll was 133, but Margarita Simonyan, a journalist for Russian state television and head of Russia Today, spoke of 143 dead.

According to some sources 145 people have been injured. The Moscow Region announced that 121 people had been injured. Earlier, he had reported that 60 of the injured were in critical condition.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, firefighters managed to evacuate around 100 people who are in the basement of the concert hall. Operations carried out by the authorities also allowed to “rescue people who had taken refuge on the roof of the building with the help of lifting equipment”.

The complicated matter of taking responsibility

The Islamic State jihadist group claimed responsibility for the attack, according to a post by the Amaq propaganda outlet on Telegram, about four hours after the shooting began.

“The attack was carried out in the context of the war raging between the Islamic State and countries fighting Islam,” Amaq added in a statement.

The US has intelligence information that corroborated Islamic State’s claim of responsibility for the deadly attack, two US officials said yesterday.

Officials said the U.S. warned Russia in recent weeks of the possibility of an attack, a move they say prompted the U.S. Embassy in Moscow to issue a warning to Americans.

Two weeks ago the US embassy in Russia warned that “extremists” had imminent plans for an attack on Moscow.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a televised address to the Russian people that the four men who carried out the attack near Moscow were heading to Ukraine when they were arrested and hoped to cross the border.

“They tried to hide and moved to Ukraine, where, according to preliminary data, a ‘window’ had been prepared for those from the Ukrainian side to cross the border,” Putin said.

Ukrainian military security spokesman Andriy Yusov told Reuters: “Ukraine is of course not involved in this terrorist attack.”

The arrests and the perpetrators

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) announced that it had arrested 11 people, including four men who carried out the attack. Russian media reports that the men fled the scene of the attack in a white vehicle and that they were arrested in the Bryansk region, 340 kilometers from Moscow.

Some of those arrested are seen being interrogated on the side of the road in videos released by Russian media and Telegram networks with close ties to the Kremlin.

“I shot people,” one of the suspects says in heavily accented Russian, his hands tied and his hair pulled by an interrogator, a black boot under his chin. He said that he was born on September 17, 1998 and that his name is Samsudin Faridun.

When asked why, he replies: “For the money.” He claims he was promised half a million rubles (just over $5000) on Telegram, where he was listening to a preacher.

The man is asked if he was in Turkey on March 4 and he says yes. They told them where gun stores were located and he bought guns there, he claimed.

One of the suspects is seen speaking with the help of an interpreter from Tajikistan. Another is seen being carried out of a forest, his face covered in blood, evident from a wound to the ear.

During interrogation, he answered that his name was Rajab Alizadeh. He had difficulty giving his date of birth in Russian.