The Chinese president is starting a six-day tour of Europe today Xi Jinping, starting his meetings from Paris and the Emmanuel Macronone of the biggest critics of Chinese politics.

Five years have passed since Xi Jinping’s last visit to the “Old Continent”. Since then, conditions both at the level of global relations and at the level of China-EU bilateral relations have changed to a very large extent.

The war in Ukraine, its friendly attitude China and the accusations that it supports Russia with materials, have shaped on a different basis the relations of the Asian superpower with Europe, but also USA.

But that’s not all. Her environment Europe for China it has turned into -almost- hostile, although the opinions of the European states differ, depending -always- also on the interests. Conflict over trade, particularly over “green energy” technologies, is more likely than ever as tensions and allegations of Chinese espionage rise in the US ahead of and election, with Donald Trump having the lead over him Joe Biden.

In the previous period, European Union launched investigations into China’s wind turbines and supply of medical equipment and raided the offices of Chinese security equipment maker Nuctech as part of a subsidy probe. Germany and the United Kingdom in recent days have also arrested or indicted at least six people for alleged espionage and related crimes linked to China.

A trade confrontation between China and the EU is almost certain

Behind these developments, the processes that “lead” to a conclusion are intensifying: That the trade confrontation between the EU and China is almost a given.

Beijing’s relations and dealings with Moscow, culminating in the recent signing of an agreement at the military and trade level between the two major powers, is further widening the gap between the EU and China and is turning the world with mathematical precision towards a more comprehensive clash of interests with uncontrollable consequences at all levels.

“China is increasingly seen as a multifaceted threat in many European capitals. But there are divisions within Europe about how fast and how far we should go to address concerns about China, both economic and security,” said Noah Barkin, senior fellow at the United States’ German Marshall Fund. .

The stops on Xi Jinping’s 6-day trip

Xi Jinping will make stops in France, Serbia and Hungary. Beijing wants to limit Europe’s reactions to its alleged trade distortions. He also wants to ensure that Europe does not get closer to the US, especially in view of the upcoming US elections and their potentially game-changing results (see Trump election).

It is estimated that Xi Jinping is not willing to satisfy the demands of the Europeans, as he follows a specific plan and a specific foreign policy. His six-day trip could instead serve to highlight differences — not just between Europe and China — but particularly states within Europe that could work in China’s favor, analysts say.

Hard poker with Emmanuel Macron

The Chinese president’s first stop is in Paris, where he will meet with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron. The Chinese leader is due to meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen along with French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday.

In his meetings, Xi Jinping aims to send the message that recriminations against China are dangerous for Europe, dismissing European concerns about China’s alleged overcapacity and subsidies. Instead it will highlight the role that Chinese electric vehicles can play in European and global efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels.

Analysts estimate that Xi Jinping’s attitude will not differ from the last meeting he had in Beijing with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. At the time, in fact, European leaders had blamed Solz for the mild attitude he had shown towards the Chinese president.

Von der Leyen is looking for ways to address trade distortions ahead of EU parliamentary elections in June, observers say.

Xi Jinping’s meeting with Emmanuel Macron is considered decisive. “France has built this reputation of being a fairly independent player in the EU and willing to make room with the US,” said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. “Xi may want to work with Macron to see if he can secure a greater distance of Europe from North America, as well as strengthen his relationship with France,” Chong said.

Ukrainian high on the contacts agenda

The war in Ukraine – a sticking point in Europe-China relations – is also expected to be on the agenda of Xi Jinping’s meetings in Europe.

“President Xi will explain to President Macron about China’s relations with Russia and that China can become a mediator to bridge the gaps between Europe and Russia,” said Wang Yuewei, a professor of international relations at Beijing Renmin University. pointing to the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland as a possible venue for a diplomatic push of that logic.

However, China’s relations with Russia do not leave much room for improvement, and Beijing has not shown any willingness to approach the Western positions on the Ukrainian one.

The big “thorn” however is commercial practices. Macron and von der Leyen are likely to warn Xi that their relationship “risks further deterioration” if China continues to supply Ukraine with these goods.

The stops in Serbia and Hungary

Xi Jinping’s stances in Serbia and Hungary are expected to act as a strong counter to the looming “hard line” that Macron and Von der Leyen will want to take. The Chinese president likely wants to highlight the European Union’s internal divisions and spark a new round of discussions on European unity.

“In Belgrade and Budapest, the Chinese president will not have to listen to the criticism he hears in other European capitals,” international analysts emphasize. “Their leaders welcome Chinese investment and have no problem with deepening China’s ties with Russia,” they add.

Xi’s visit to Belgrade will coincide with the week of the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, which killed three people. The attack, part of a wider NATO operation in the Balkans in the spring of 1999, led to a deep rift between Beijing and NATO, even as the US claimed it was an accident.

A possible reference by Xi Jinping in this particular period would re-emphasise the great distance, even hostility, of China with NATO.

Xi Jinping may also seek to highlight Chinese investment in both Belgrade and Budapest in a message to the rest of Europe.

In Hungary, the Chinese president will seek to deepen his relationship with increasingly authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a valued ally for China in the European Union. Hungary has blocked or criticized EU efforts to hold China to account on human rights issues.

The central European country has also emerged as an increasingly important European production hub for Chinese auto suppliers, including EV makers, a situation analysts say could help Chinese companies maneuver around potential tariffs. which the EU wants to impose.

If the estimates are confirmed, Xi Jinping will start his journey from a different base and end up at a different base. It would not be an exaggeration, given the rarity of the Chinese leader’s visits to the European continent, if we estimated that the 6-day tour will define China’s relations with the EU for the coming years and possibly the developments at the trade and business level.