The European Union on Wednesday approved a new package of sanctions against Russia, in reaction to President Vladimir Putin’s recognition of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.
Bloc sanctions against Moscow began to be imposed in 2014 in response to the annexation of Crimea. Gradually, the list of measures grew, with biannual renewals, and began to include diplomatic vetoes (such as the expulsion of the G8), individual restrictions or restrictions aimed at entire companies and economic sectors.
Almost eight years later, the group of 27 countries is again trying to stop the Russian advance in the same Ukraine. After all, do sanctions work against Russia?
On the one hand, analysts agree that the 2014 package did not achieve its main objectives, such as compliance with the Minsk Accords, to which economic measures have been linked since 2015. On the other hand, they reaffirm that the instrument remains the one with the most potential for effectiveness, from the point of view of the West, to avoid a military conflict — especially if, as this week, it is implemented with speed, by a relevant group and with increasingly severe consequences.
The Minsk Accords 1 and 2, signed between 2014 and 2015, constitute a ceasefire that was never respected by the parties — it is estimated that 14,000 people died in the civil war — and a way to reintegrate the regions into Ukraine. separatists, another thing never implemented.
“The formal objective of the 2014 sanctions, the full respect of the Minsk Accords, was not achieved. allies in the degree of relationship with Russia”, says Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti, from the Institute for International Policy Studies in Milan, specializing in Russia.
A sign of weakness from this first wave of restrictions was also evident in the current crisis. “We cannot say for sure whether, after 2014, sanctions worked or not to deter Putin from further incursions into Ukraine. Judging by the last few weeks, no, it doesn’t look like they were even taken into account by the Kremlin.”
After intensifying a military movement in areas close to Ukraine in November, Putin made a tough speech last Monday (21), on Russian TV, in which he recognized the breakaway republics of Lugansk and Donetsk. The move, followed by the decision to send troops to the Donbass region, prompted the new EU sanctions package, as well as measures by the US, UK, Japan and Australia.
On Tuesday, Josep Borrell, responsible for the bloc’s diplomacy, began the day by announcing that sanctions against Russia would be discussed in the afternoon. This Wednesday, unanimous approval came by the 27 member states, in an extraordinary meeting of the European Council.
The new measures include restrictions on the bloc’s economic relations with the two breakaway areas and on Russia’s access to EU financial markets and services, as well as sanctions applied to entities and persons who “have contributed to undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and the independence of Ukraine”.
In this group, of 27 names, according to The New York Times, are Putin’s chief of staff, Anton Vaino, and Defense Minister Sergei Choigu. Also subject to sanctions are 351 members of the Duma (Lower House of Parliament) who voted in favor of the rebels’ request for recognition. Individual measures include a travel ban and an asset freeze in the EU. The Russian government will also have restricted access to the European capital market.
In addition to the sanctions decided in bloc, Germany had reacted individually by freezing the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is ready but unable to operate due to the crisis. This Wednesday, US President Joe Biden announced sanctions on the company responsible for the project and its directors – the statement does not detail what those punishments will be.
The new EU list came in as an update to the 2014 sanctions, which had been renewed since then. As a result, the restrictions, which until then reached 193 people and 48 organizations, will now apply to 555 people and 52 organizations.
“These are heavy sanctions, but, diplomatically, not enough to affect Putin directly. Many were asking him to punish him directly, but when it comes to who he is, it would be something that could lead to the end of diplomatic dialogue”, evaluates Ambrosetti. The precedent for a similar EU action is 2020 against Aleksandr Lukachenko, the dictator of Belarus.
Announced as an initial wave, the measures should increase in intensity in the coming weeks, following the Russian movement. Moscow’s initial reaction was one of disdain. “Our European, American and British friends will not stop until they have exhausted their possibilities of punishing Russia. Well, we are used to it. Sanctions will be imposed anyway,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
If so far they haven’t been firm enough to oust Putin or suffocate the country economically, sanctions could become a more effective mechanism as they get more severe — or at least signal it, with the country’s removal from the international banking system or a personal siege. to the president.
“The effectiveness of economic sanctions is not short-term. Russia is a large country, but with a certain economic fragility. It is not industrial and lives, above all, on the export of raw materials. Intervention in these areas can lead to internal,” says Paola Mariani, a professor of international law at the Bocconi University in Milan. “Putin has a certain internal consensus, but it’s not guaranteed to hold.”
Still, there is the factor that state propaganda can reinforce the image that the West seeks to oppress Russia, reinforcing the view that the enemy is external. At the same time, those who impose the sanctions run the risk of a boomerang effect from drastic or lasting measures, such as the impact on the supply of Russian gas to Europe – between 40 and 50% of what is consumed today.
Mariani agrees that sanctions are a limited mechanism. “But they are still the best road. In the face of radicalized positions, instead of threatening back with the use of force discourse, sanctions are the rational path.”
