The deep rifts that exist in the Israeli government over the war in the Gaza Strip were exposed this week when the defense minister publicly asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to define a clear strategy as Israeli forces return to battle Hamas forces in areas of the Palestinian enclave that had been considered “cleared” for months.

The comments by Yoav Gallad, who has made it clear he will not agree to a military government in Gaza, echo the discomfort within the Israeli military at Netanyahu’s lack of direction on how to govern Gaza if and when the war ends.

They also highlighted the rift between the two centrist ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, former generals of the Israeli army, who supported the position of the defense minister, on the one hand, and the far-right, ultra-Orthodox, nationalist parties led by the minister Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Minister of Internal Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, on the other hand, who condemned the statements of Yoav Galland.

“This is no way to run a war,” was the headline in the right-wing tabloid Israel Today that framed the photo of Netanyahu and Gallad looking in opposite directions.

Beyond the “dismantling” of Hamas and the return of the 130 hostages, Netanyahu has not clarified what the strategic goal is for ending the military operation.

However, supported by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, the duo leading the settlement movement in the West Bank, rejected any involvement of the Palestinian Authority in post-war Gaza.

Netanyahu is struggling to keep the motley and unstable Israeli government in place and insists on repeating that his goal is “total victory” over Hamas. After the war, Gaza can be ruled by a political administration that will not be related to Hamas, with Israeli military responsibility, total military responsibility, he said in an interview with the CNBC television network.

Israeli officials have said that influential figures in Palestinian society and members of Palestinian civil society may be drafted in to fill the void left by the Hamas administration after it is “dismantled.” But for now, there has been no perceived presence of such leading figures in Palestinian society who are able or willing to replace the leadership of Hamas, while Arab countries have shown no willingness to help.

“For Israel, the options are either to stop the war and withdraw, or to establish military rule in the Palestinian enclave and control the entire territory for who knows how long, because once they withdraw from an area, Hamas will re-emerge.” warns Yossi Meckelberg, of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.

Guerrilla warfare tactics

Israel’s defense minister refuses to accept any form of permanent military rule of the Gaza Strip knowing the material and political cost of an operation that would put the Israeli military and the Israeli economy to a painful test. After all, the specter of the multi-year Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon after the 1982 war remains in the memories.

A classified Israeli Defense Ministry report, published today in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, estimates the cost of establishing and maintaining military rule in the Gaza Strip at 20 billion shekels ($5.43 billion) a year, not including the cost of reconstruction. The needs for additional military forces in the Palestinian enclave will draw forces from the northern border with Lebanon and from the central sector, which will mean a large increase in the military obligations of the reserves.

Taking full control of Gaza will require at least four divisions, about 50,000 troops, according to Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies.

At a time when, according to Israeli military commanders, thousands of Hamas fighters have been killed during the war and most of the group’s organized armed units have been disbanded, smaller armed groups are springing up in areas the Israeli military has supposedly “cleared”.

“It’s a very flexible organization with the ability to adapt quickly” to circumstances, Milstein says. “They have adopted new forms of guerrilla warfare.”

An idea of ​​the cost Israel will be asked to pay if it becomes involved in dealing with a protracted guerrilla war may be provided by yesterday’s incident, when five Israeli soldiers were killed by friendly fire from an Israeli tank during heavy clashes in the Jabalia area, an area , north of Gaza City, which had been “cleared” by the Israeli army during the early stages of the war.

Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said the army’s job is to “break up these zones where Hamas is coming back and trying to regroup,” but left the issue of replacing the Islamist group in Gaza’s governance to be decided at the political level.

Although polls show a majority of Israelis support the war, support is declining. More and more people are making it a priority to return the hostages, before dismantling Hamas. Events like yesterday’s in Jabalia are expected to shrink support for military operations.

Another issue expected to divide Israeli society is the dispute over the introduction of mandatory military service for the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community. Their conscription is supported by Benny Gantz and his political allies, but meets fierce resistance from religious parties.

Netanyahu has so far avoided pulling any component from the fragile governing coalition, which would mean the collapse of the Israeli government.

But Yoav Gallad, who has already led an internal revolt against Netanyahu last year over judicial reform aimed at limiting the Supreme Court’s power, has clashed regularly with Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. And his recent break with Netanyahu probably won’t be the last.