Is Russia preparing for war with NATO?

China is the most important supplier of microelectronics and machine tools for the production of Russian weapon systems from 2023 according to a new US study. Already at the end of last year, the German Association for Foreign Policy (DGAP) underlined in its analysis that in the worst case, NATO has only five years at its disposal to maintain its deterrent potential against a possible Russian attack on a NATO member country .

Study author Christian Melling, head of DGAP’s Center for Security and Defense, told DW: “At the end of the day we just have to say openly that President Putin lives only through this war. War remains his main concern, and unfortunately peace is no longer in his sights.”

Conflict within the next 20 years

In a study published in April, the US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) concludes that Putin’s “continued radical military reforms” in the war against Ukraine “show that Russia may be preparing for confrontation with NATO within the next two decades, including a large-scale conventional war.”

The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, which according to US media reports is close to the US arms industry, has investigated for the second time since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine the supply of parts for the Russian arms industry from abroad as well as the how the Russian military industry circumvents Western sanctions.

“Almost nothing is produced in Russia itself”

To this end, the researchers analyzed publicly available data on the movement of goods to Russia, focusing on microelectronic technologies for missiles and cruise bombs. The Center for Strategic and International Studies also investigated the trade in computer-controlled metalworking machinery.

As of 2023, the Ukrainian military has found mainly Chinese-made electronics in Russian weapons, Ukrainian sanctions expert Vladyslav Vlasiuk told DW: “Almost nothing is produced in Russia itself. If tomorrow all imports of microelectronics stopped, Russia would not be able to produce weapons systems.”

Evidence shows that already the Russian defense industry has successfully switched to simpler components, which come mainly from China. In its analysis the CSIS think tank notes, among other things, that “for critical components and electronics needed for its war machine, the Kremlin has turned to dual-use technologies that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, “or even in purely political technologies”. In other words, components that are not currently included in the defense sanctions imposed by the West on Russia.