Trump is not a conventional politician. His most devoted supporters will become even more devoted after the court’s verdict – Is this enough? Politico analysis
Even for a politician reeling while dealing with ‘waves’ of scandals, this week complicates the course of Donald Trump towards the presidential elections, comments Politico.
It is a fact that guilty of 34 felony charges would be enough to derail the career of any “conventional” politician.
It is also a fact that the former president is not a conventional politician. His most devoted supporters will become even more devoted after the New York court’s verdict. Just as they did on successive occasions.
But these two obvious truths tend to obscure another. Trump simply cannot defeat Joe Biden based solely on the votes of people who believe his legal woes are a politically motivated hoax, and who cheer Trump not in spite of his transgressions but because of them. Or, more specifically, because they are moved by the anger and resentment that Trump inspires in his opponents.
There are many such people, but still not enough to win the election. Trump’s only path to victory is a coalition that includes many Republicans and independents who find him contemptible, but they believe a second Biden term would be even worse.
That’s why this week was easily the worst so far this year for Trump and the best for Biden.
That doesn’t mean the Manhattan verdict will suddenly dramatically change the election race — nothing in Trump’s history of scandals suggests that.
That doesn’t mean vast “legions” of undecided voters will suddenly buy into Biden’s argument that democracy itself is being judged at the polls this fall. If one didn’t accept it until now, why would one change one’s mind from a case of falsifying documents to cover up an alleged sexual encounter?
But it does mean that many voters who don’t particularly like Biden got an emphatic, clear reminder why they don’t like Trump. Moving even a small percentage of voters to swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all of which Biden must win — could decisively affect the balance of the pre-election race.
Joe Biden has had a particular line throughout his political career: “Don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.’
It can be easy to forget that this is also a key pillar of Trump’s strategy. Polls show that a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with their options. The only way to win in the US is with the support of those “holding their noses” and voting. Trump’s convictions — and the certainty that he will remain in the news through sentences and possible appeals — mean that reluctant Trump supporters will have to pinch even harder to vote for him.
One Democratic pollster told Politico after the court’s verdict that Biden’s message should be: “The situation is always a mess with Trump, and he’s putting himself first. How can he do what is best for the country and do what is best for you when he will spend his four years (of his term) obsessing over his legal issues, trying to “settle scores” with his rivals, trying to stay out of jail?’
One Republican agreed that Trump does best when he reacts opportunistically to events — but not when he and his own actions are the focus of constant news coverage.
And there’s a parallel here with then-Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. The accusations she faced of using classified correspondence on her personal email account, which Trump exploited relentlessly. This controversy was damaging not because the underlying crime was so serious, but because for many people it painted the picture of a man who believed he was operating above the rules.
Source :Skai
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