Crucial for the future of Europe are tomorrow’s elections in which 380 million voters go to the polls to choose their representatives in the European Parliament, with far-right parties expected to make significant gains.

The voters of some of the 27 member states of the European Union have already gone to the polls in a process that started on Thursday and will end on Sunday.

In particular, after the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Ireland, the polls opened on Saturday in Slovakia, Malta, Latvia and Italy, while on Sunday citizens vote in the rest of the EU countries, including Greece.

The final results will not be announced until Sunday night, after all countries have voted. The main voting day is Sunday, with citizens of 20 European countries, including Germany, France and Poland, voting for the European Parliament’s 720 seats, which are allocated by population.

Far-right parties are expected to take up to a quarter of the total seats, a development that will have an impact on key EU policy-making issues.

The two main far-right formations are: the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy (ID) party which are expected to increase their seats.

According to Politico, France’s far-right National Alarm party is expected to receive a third of the vote, more than double the percentage of Emmanuel Macron’s party. The far-right Alternative for Germany party AFD may take second place while Giorgia Meloni’s Adelphia Italia party leads the race with a clear lead.

In Italy, the result carries special weight as the result is expected to confirm or overturn the balance of power created by the parliamentary elections in 2022. According to the latest polls the “Brothers of Italy” seem to gather 27% of the voting intention.

“This vote will determine our next five years,” Georgia Meloni said at the polls, reiterating her longstanding position that the time had come for national governments to take back more powers and limit the reach of institutional EU institutions dominated by Christian Democrats, Socialists and Liberal politicians.

As the third most populous state in the Union, Italy exerts considerable influence. It will elect 76 MEPs to the 720-seat parliament, which has expanded its powers in recent years. Only Germany and France, which vote on Sunday, have more seats.

MEPs in the new parliament will have the power to shape policies on climate, migration, industry, defense and security.

The far-right’s performance could affect EU decisions on immigration, the climate, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the future of the Union itself.

Foreign Policy

The influence that the European Parliament has on foreign policy is overshadowed by the European Council, which is made up of the leaders of the 27 member states and has the final say on foreign policy. It is up to member states to decide together whether to send ammunition to Ukraine or agree to impose EU sanctions against Russia, for example.

However, this does not mean that the European Parliament is powerless in foreign policy. And as a branch of the EU’s fiscal authority, it has a say in EU spending priorities.

Environmental policy

The direction of the EU’s internal policy is largely shaped by the most powerful political groups, which generally make their demands known immediately after the European elections. However, the right turn of the European Parliament could “freeze” decisions concerning issues such as the environment.

Immigration and asylum policies

Respect for the rule of law, immigration and EU integration – are issues likely to be affected by a shift to the right of parliament.

EU immigration and asylum policies are likely to be overhauled, including the asylum bill passed on May 14 that sets out rules for the 27 member states on how to handle illegal arrivals.

Despite the ominous scenarios, the far-right’s influence on EU policies may moderate as they remain divided. Ukraine is one of the issues on which they disagree.

At the same time, infighting and scandals have caused rifts within them, potentially limiting their political influence and giving the edge to the dominant parties – still on course to win a solid majority.