Europe’s political center of gravity is shifting to the right.

Center-right and far-right parties are set to jump first in Sunday’s European Union elections in the most populous countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland.

France and Germany: dynamic rise of the far right

France led a shift to the far right with the election result showing such a landslide victory for the far-right National Rally that liberal President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called early elections. Early projections suggested the National Rally would win 32 percent or more of the vote, more than double that of the president’s party.

“The president of the Republic cannot turn a deaf ear to the message sent this afternoon by the people of France,” National Rally president Jordan Bardela told supporters at the Parc Floral in Paris.

In Germany, the center-right is heading for a comfortable victory, with far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) coming second and beating Chancellor Olaf Solz’s Socialists into third.

A possible Le Pen victory could bring turmoil across Europe

Voters in 27 nations voted last week to elect 720 members of the European Parliament, who will serve the next five years. Their primary role is to approve or reject the main candidate for Europe’s top job: the president of the European Commission.

In a continent that has sought to exorcise the ghosts of fascism for eight decades, the dynamic presence of the far right will be one of the hottest topics of debate.

While it is relatively unlikely that far-right parties will be able to co-ordinate as a unified group within the European Parliament, given their disagreements over issues such as Russia, they will be immediately able to influence the direction of the EU on everything from immigration to climate policies.

Grouped together, the radical right parties represent the second largest force in parliament, coming first in France and Italy and second in Germany, the three largest and most important countries in the 27-nation bloc.

The far-right is also expected to win in Hungary and tie for first place in European Parliament seats in the Netherlands. The center-right was comfortably first in Greece and Bulgaria.

The most ominous warning sign for the EU’s future is France, given the scale of the far-right’s victory over Macron. All eyes will now be on whether France’s populist wave can maintain its momentum in upcoming parliamentary elections and the 2027 presidential election – where a victory by far-right leader Marine Le Pen would threaten to throw the entire EU into turmoil.

The bet on Ursula von der Leyen

The official winner of the night looks set to be European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whose centre-right European People’s Party will still be the largest bloc in Parliament.

The centre-right will be the dominant force but can hardly govern alone as it will be miles away from an absolute majority in parliament.

The main challenge for von der Leyen in the coming days and weeks will be whether she can strike a deal with the traditional centrist parties, the Socialists and Liberals, to create a majority of 361 or more in Parliament.

In total, the three major groups of the center have about 400 seats. This means that von der Leyen’s re-election is still fluid and has a way to go to be decisive, because she can be rejected if only about 10% of MPs from the main parties rebel against their party lines. The rebellion rate is usually higher.

That raises a big question about whether he will need to fish for other allies, from the Greens to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy.

Von der Leyen’s centre-right is quick to reject the far-right’s xenophobia and Euroscepticism, but she knows her voters share the same concerns about the cost of living, immigration and a sense that Europe’s traditional core businesses have been hurt by green regulation.