If the shadow of the Cold War is one of the main elements to understand the background of the invasion of Ukraine, there are also other events of the last 30 years that dialogue with the war initiated by Russia in the Eastern European country. The wars in Bosnia (1992), Kosovo (1999), Georgia (2008) and Syria enter this equation. And even the war in Iraq helps to understand the context.
The conflicts, which took place in Europe after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and left a death toll that could reach 1 million, have characteristics that are in line with what is happening in Ukraine – be it the ethnic disputes of some, the participation of NATO (military alliance Western) in others, the ability of Russian military organization or the willingness of the US to interfere (or not) in a conflict.
WAR OF BOSNIA (1992 TO 1995)
The civil conflict in Bosnia, which left more than 100,000 dead, is part of the long process of disintegration of Yugoslavia, which brought together a multitude of nations (or ethnicities). The end of the Soviet Union was a decisive lever for regional separatist movements to gain strength.
After Slovenia, Croatia and Macedonia achieved their independence, it was the turn of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a complex region due to the multiplicity of ethnicities. The conflict was marked by the attempt to ethnically cleanse the local Muslim population, in the biggest crime of genocide committed on European territory in the post-war period.
Which element dialogues with Ukraine? Both Bosnia and Ukraine, countries descended from Slavic peoples, are multinational states, explains Angelo Segrillo, a professor of contemporary history at USP specializing in Russia. “This creates sociocultural wealth, but also potential ethnic conflicts.”
The latest Ukrainian population census says that more than 130 nationalities and ethnic groups live in the country, the majority being Ukrainian (77%) and Russian (17%). The factor may not be the main driver of the Russian invasion, but it has enormous weight: Vladimir Putin says that the countries’ populations constitute “one people”, and two Russian-majority regions of eastern Ukraine, in the Donbass, have declared themselves independent. and were recognized by Moscow.
KOSOVO WAR (1998 TO 1999)
Also part of the imbroglio of the former socialist republic of Yugoslavia, the province of Kosovo, of Albanian majority and Serb minority, tried to proclaim its independence. The Yugoslav reaction, under the command of Slobodan Milosevic, was brutal. More than 10,000 died, and hundreds of thousands were left homeless or emigrated.
Which element dialogues with Ukraine? NATO (the western military alliance created 50 years earlier), which is at the center of the current conflict, intervened in the Kosovo war. The alliance, in violation of international law and without a specific mandate from the United Nations Security Council, sent troops to the region. Kosovo would only become independent, in fact, in 2008, but Western participation in the conflict had historical weight.
The intervention was one of the greatest examples of NATO’s predisposition, which at the same time engulfed Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, to tinker with Eastern European chess. This contributed to the frustration of the Russians, who, from 1991 to 1998, tried to get closer to the West, explains Pedro Feliú, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at USP.
“There was an attempt at Russian rapprochement with the West, but the US turned its back, even though there were disagreements among US leaders about the need and how strategic the expansion of NATO would be”, he says. “This factor opened space for the advancement of Russian ultranationalism.” Vladimir Putin, who became president in 1999, is the result of this feeling.
WAR OF GEORGIA (2008)
Georgia, a small former Soviet republic in the Caucasus region, was invaded by Russia for two main reasons: first, because it had long been in the NATO satellite, and the Russian government wanted to prevent the country from joining the military alliance. ; second, because the government of Georgian Mikheil Saakashvili, an ally of the West, tried to incorporate two ethnically Russian-majority areas: Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The Russian government responded. About 1,100 people died, 400 of them civilians, and approximately 200,000 lost their homes in the conflict.
Which element dialogues with Ukraine? First, the war was a striking example of Russian willingness to counterbalance American power in the region, says Feliú. Furthermore, if there was a Russia weakened in the conflicts in Bosnia and Kosovo, here is a country that has seen its capacity for military organization emerge and has invested in the renewal of the Armed Forces.
WAR IN SYRIA (2011 TO NOW)
The Syrian civil war may not have a territorial relationship with Russia, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have Moscow’s participation — the Russians are, in fact, one of the main actors in the conflict.
The crisis, which began with popular uprisings calling for the end of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship, continues to this day, and terrorism, with the participation of groups such as the Islamic State (IS), has added to the conflict.
Putin’s government supports the Assad dictatorship — the Syrian, by the way, was one of the few who expressed support for the invasion of Ukraine. The Syrian Violations Documentation Center says at least 7,300 civilian and combatant deaths in the war can be attributed to Russian forces.
Which element dialogues with Ukraine? One of Russia’s main disagreements in the Syrian war is with Turkey, which supports some local forces against Assad’s dictatorship. Turkey is a member of NATO and works as a kind of border to contain Russian influence in the Middle East region, explains Feliú, from USP. “The War in Syria is emblematic of the Russian military power to go a little beyond the strategic environment of Eastern Europe”, she adds.
The Turkish counterbalance to the influence of Putin’s government is also clear in the invasion of Ukraine. The country has promptly condemned Russian military action and has often been urged by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry and President Volodymyr Zelensky to support the country, for example by blocking Russian companies from accessing its airspace.
IRAQ WAR (2003 to 2011)
Claiming that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction – an argument that would fall to the ground years later – the US invaded the country in 2003 and overthrew the dictator Saddam Hussein. American troops remained in the country and were withdrawn in 2011. However, they returned in 2014 to fight the Islamic State (IS).
Which element dialogues with Ukraine? The conflict talks less to Russia and more to the US, NATO’s main actors. This is because it is an example of the American interest in using its military force in a crisis. Feliú, from USP, lists three elements that weighed on US interest in Iraq: 1) domestic lobbying, especially from businessmen; 2) strategic interest in oil reserves and 3) US foreign policy that prioritizes Israel (Iraq’s rival state).
In addition to sanctions on Russian companies and individuals, the sale of weapons to Ukraine and the deployment of troops to the strategic environment, the US government does not seem willing to invest more intensively in Ukrainian defense. In part because the country is not a member of NATO — the alliance itself had said it would not send troops for precisely that reason in the event of an invasion.
