Following French President Emmanuel Macron’s dissolution of the National Assembly on Sunday 9 June, early parliamentary elections are scheduled for 30 June and 7 July.

At the end of these elections, it is not certain that the presidential camp and its allies will retain their majority. If an opposition party wins an absolute majority, the president will be forced to appoint a prime minister from the party that won the election. In French politics, this is known as “cohabitation”.

Analysts warn of the risk of political paralysis amid “political cohabitation”, as it raises concerns about the distribution of powers between the president and prime minister.

How could the possibility of political paralysis in France be avoided:

No one can say for sure

Article 8 of the French Constitution provides that the president appoints the prime minister, but does not state the criteria by which he must proceed with this selection.

In practice, President Emmanuel Macron is expected to offer the seat to the leading parliamentary group – which according to opinion polls will be Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN).

Will Bardela become prime minister?

The National Rally has declared Jordan Bardella as its candidate for prime minister, but he has declared that he will refuse his appointment to the prime ministership if his party and its allies do not win an absolute majority of 289 seats.

Since the Constitution does not explicitly state how the new prime minister should be chosen, Macron could in any case, in theory, form an alliance against the RN and choose a person from another party as prime minister.

If not Bardella, then who?

The constitution does not give a specific answer.

The options available to the French president are:

– The creation of an alliance of dominant parties. There is no such alliance at the moment, but Macron has urged the parties to unite against the far right.

– To offer the position to the left, if the alliance that includes the far left, the Socialist Party and the Greens emerges as the second strongest political group, as the opinion polls show. The left could then try to form a minority government.

To what extent these options can work

If the National Rally wins a relative majority and accepts the premiership, it would begin a period of “cohabitation” with Macron. This has happened three times in modern French political history, among however moderate parties. RN may have disagreed on political reforms.

If the RN party has a relative majority in parliament but does not hold power, it could block or modify government proposals. The Constitution gives the government some tools to be able to override the backlash, but with limitations.

If the National Rally secures an absolute majority, then it can win the prime ministership, otherwise it has the power to force any other government to resign.

What happens if there is no agreement?

It is possible that none of the three groups – the far right, the center and the left – will gather enough power to govern on their own, reach a coalition agreement or receive assurances that they can lead a viable minority government.

In such a case, France would risk political paralysis, as few bills? They would be outvoted, while a caretaker government would simply manage basic government affairs.

Can Macron resign?

Macron has ruled out that possibility, but could step down if the country descends into political paralysis. However, neither parliament nor the government can force him to resign.

What does the Constitution exclude?

The French Constitution says no new parliamentary elections can be held for a year, so an immediate repeat of the electoral process is not an option.

What we need to know

The outcome of the French parliamentary election is difficult to predict because it involves 577 separate contests, one per seat. The short election campaign can lead to incorrect estimates of the election result.