Fears that the Communist Party may fulfill its claim to one day take control of Taiwan, by force if necessary, have been heightened in recent years by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s increasingly belligerent actions.
China’s military could isolate her Taiwan to cripple its economy and make the island’s Republic bend to the will of Beijing’s ruling Communist Party without ever “opening fire”, warns a prominent think tank.
Fears that the Communist Party may fulfill its claim to one day take control of Taiwan by force have been heightened in recent years by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s increasingly belligerent actions toward the self-ruled island.
THE China’s refusal to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated these fears.
Such a scenario has long been the focus of analysts and military strategists. They conclude that the China it has two main options, a full-scale invasion or a military blockade.
The quarantine of the gray zones for the occupation of Taiwan
But a think tank in Washington, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), warns that there is a third way, which will make it very difficult for the United States and other allied powers to deal with it: the quarantine of gray areas.
Using “gray zone” tactics, i.e. actions that are one step short of being considered acts of war, China’s coast guard, its so-called maritime militia and various police and maritime security agencies could initiate a full or partial quarantine on Taiwan, possibly . cutting off access to its ports and stopping vital supplies like energy from reaching the island’s 23 million residents, says a newly published report by CSIS.
The naval, air and ground elements of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the world’s largest military force, could only play supporting and supporting roles, write authors Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew Funaiole, Samantha Lu and Truly Tinsley.
“China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, fueling fears that tensions could escalate into full-scale conflict. Much attention has been paid to the threat of an invasion, but Beijing has options other than invasion to coerce, punish or surrender Taiwan,” the report said.
Open threats from the Chinese Minister of Defense
At the defense summit Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore earlier this month, Mr Chinese Defense Minister Admiral Dong June warned those who support any moves in favor of Taiwanese independence that they would “end up in self-destruction”.
“We will take decisive measures to limit Taiwan’s independence and make sure that such a plot never succeeds,” Dong said, speaking through a translator, while condemning “intervening foreign powers” for arms sales and “illegal official contacts ». » with Taiwan.
Gray zone tactics
China’s “grey zone” tactics were on display this week as Chinese coast guard vessels clashed with Philippine Navy vessels in the South China Sea.
The videos showed them Beijing troops to threaten the Filipinos with ax and other bladed weapons and Manila said one of its soldiers lost her thumb in a clash fueled by China.
The level of violence was a major step up from previous clashes near Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines maintains an outpost on a littoral warship in waters claimed by both Beijing and Manila.
Similarly, Beijing’s military and economic intimidation of Taiwan, a highly developed freedom economy, has become much more intense under Xi.
China’s ruling Communist Party claims the island as its own, even though it has never controlled it, and has vowed to “reunite” with it, with life if it is held.
But the CSIS report says Beijing has options that could not only take its military out of combat, but could put the island’s democracy or its backers, such as the United States, in the role of instigators of military conflict. . to maintain Taiwan’s autonomy.
Difference between quarantine and exclusion
The report notes that China’s coast guard is considered a law enforcement agency. This means it can stop and regulate shipping across the island in what is called a quarantine, which is different from a blockade.
“Quarantine (is) a law enforcement-led operation to control maritime or inland traffic within a specific area, while blockade is primarily military in nature,” the report said.
The international law considers the blockade an act of war, experts say.
“A quarantine led by China’s coast guard is not a declaration of war against Taiwan,” the US-embarrassing report said, its authors warned.
The USA’s hands are tied in the event of a quarantine
Washington is legally obligated under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide the island with the means to defend itself, and so supplies it with defensive weapons.
US President Joe Biden has gone further than the legal requirement, repeatedly saying he would use US troops to protect Taiwan, a warning that appeared to depart from Washington’s previous stance of “strategic ambiguity” and that White House officials . House have retired.
However, if US warships or aircraft intervene in what China says is a law enforcement operation, the US could be seen as initiating military hostilities.
Makes sense, but remains fraught with risks for China
Outside analysts who reviewed the CSIS report and spoke to CNN found that plausible. But they also harbored considerable doubts about how things might turn out.
Some have mentioned how the economy will not favor Beijing.
“Maintaining the quarantine will be expensive and time-consuming,” said Carl Schuster, former director at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.
“Taipei will not be extended in less than 60 days,” Schuster argues. “Can Beijing sustain the effort and the potential international backlash for so long?”
Efforts to upend the status quo in the Taiwan Straits could further erode Beijing’s foreign trade, experts warn.
Alessio Patalano, professor of war and strategy at King’s College London, points to the challenges already facing the Chinese Communist Party with an economy still struggling to recover from the Covid-19 lockdown. It has seen growth rates fall and new trade restrictions such as tariffs on its electric vehicle exports.
Taiwan is a prominent industrial economy, a critical hub in global supply chains, and a manufacturer of the vast majority of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. A quarantine on the island would have economic consequences not only domestically, but also globally.
While most nations diplomatically recognize Beijing over Taiwan, the island has forged increasingly strong unofficial ties with major Western democracies, deepening those ties in recent years as Beijing’s threats have hardened.
Source :Skai
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