After Macron, “the center risks becoming again a place where politicians go to die”
It has the air of the last supper. The black-and-white photo captures the anxiety and frustration of President Emmanuel Macron’s inner circle, likely as he informs them that he is going to bet big on a high-stakes parliamentary election.
Macron sits at a table, a small carriage clock in front of him, in an opulent hall of the Elysee Palace, while a palpable tension grips his closest lieutenants across the street. It may be an unusual image for the official photographer of the Elysees to post on Instagram, but no one doubts that it reflects the nerves that are fraying the president’s inner circle.
Humiliated by the far-right National Rally in the EU elections, Macron issued a bombshell announcement on June 9 that he would try to contain the rise of the right with national elections. Since then, Macron’s top team has been characterized by doubts, whining and low spirits.
Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, a pillar of Macron’s liberal Renaissance party, won the award for the most revealing ballad on the situation in a campaign in northern France after Le Figaro quoted him as lamenting that “the country is going to the dogs”.
Who will fill the center void?
Such deep despair poses a problem for the future of France. One of the biggest questions facing French politics, after all, is who will fill the huge void at the political center when Macron’s presidency ends in 2027.
Those scanning the board for a liberal savior will be disappointed. Macron’s centrist coalition is in danger of being wiped out in a vote spanning two rounds, on June 30 and July 7, by both the left and the far right. The president’s allies, meanwhile, appear to be seeking an exit strategy rather than glory in a famous last stand.
Sharp comments about the French president, which were once only whispered, are now spoken openly. Macron loyalist Bruno Le Maire said the leader took the decision to dissolve parliament on his own and that the choice “has created, in our country, for the French people, everywhere, anxiety, misunderstanding and sometimes anger”, as the he told French radio.
That’s a decidedly contrarian note from Bruno Le Maire, who just weeks ago was tipped to be Macron’s nominee for an all-powerful role as EU economy commissioner to push the country’s industrial agenda in Brussels.
Early departures
The timing of the parliamentary election has hamstrung Macron’s allies, who have not even begun to prepare for a showdown with far-right foe Marine Le Pen in the next presidential election in 2027. Macron cannot run for re-election, and several of his allies coalition, including Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe and Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, are eyeing his job.
Now, with the political center faltering, some are going their own way and betting on more independent platforms.
Meanwhile, the ultimate prize, the presidency, seems increasingly distant.
“The succession race has properly begun, but while the goal was to reign a palace, now it is to inherit a shed,” said Benjamin Morel, a political scientist at Panthéon-Assas University in Paris.
But Macron does not hesitate to risk the political fortunes of his allies on his last bet.
“There may be personal ambitions thwarted by the current changes, it is duly noted. But that is not important, we are facing a historic moment for the nation,” he said during a press conference last week.
At the top of the list of those whose ambitions have been thwarted is Attal. Seated across from Macron in the black-and-white photo, the young prime minister clearly took a body blow. After avoiding the public eye for 24 hours, Attal reappeared last Tuesday to blast Macron’s decision as “sudden” and “brutal”.
Despite his obvious disappointment at the decision to dissolve parliament, he later rallied to insist: “Now is no time for qualms.”
But what will happen to Attal? Before Macron’s campaign, the 35-year-old centrist rising star, who is more popular than the president, was preparing for the top spot.
In the EU elections, after all, Attal was the young face sent to debate Jordan Bardela, the equally fresh leader of the National Rally. Ironically, Bardela is now tipped to succeed Attal at Matignon, the stately home of France’s prime ministers.
“[Δεδομένου ότι ο Attal] he was very involved in the European elections, as a weapon against Bardella, the big defeat [που υπέστη από την Αναγέννηση του Μακρόν] it’s not going to help his prospects. He will also suffer as he advertises himself as Macron’s natural successor,” said Bruno Cautrès, a political researcher at the Sciences Po institute.
Attal has also been humiliated by being excluded from Macron’s recent policy consultations, despite the fact that snap elections will almost certainly end his premiership.
On one side of Attal in the photo is Interior Minister Darmanin, pressing his hands to his face, as if in prayer. The other is National Assembly President Yaël Braun-Pivet, who is sadly taking notes. POLITICO’s Paris Playbook has learned that he told Macron he was making a bad decision. He later stated that “there was another way”, that of building a coalition and not calling elections.
Check out this Instagram post.
The center can not hold?
Then there is former prime minister Philippe, who is visibly keeping his distance, even disappearing for sea air in Le Havre, a port in Normandy of which he became mayor in 2020.
Philippe, who served as prime minister from 2017 to 2020, was seen as the country’s next centrist president but has long reneged on his pledge to remain “free but loyal” to Macron.
In recent days Philippe has distanced himself from Macron’s inner circle, calling the EU election defeat “a rejection of the president” and questioning whether Macron should join the campaign.
In the upcoming parliamentary elections, Philippe’s Horizons group will stand as a separate party for the first time, which implies some financial independence. He has also begun to cultivate relationships with conservative politicians from Les Républicains.
“The French president’s coalition is collapsing fast, with coalition partners leaving,” political analyst Morel said.
But although Philippe, who remains popular for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, has avoided national politics for the past four years, he risks a complete withdrawal if voters turn against Macron’s camp.
According to Morel, the parliamentary elections will likely strengthen the left and Le Pen’s National Rally, which will face off as the strongest alternatives in 2027.
After Macron, “the center risks once again becoming a place where politicians go to die,” he said. “With fewer lawmakers, networks, a centrist candidate will struggle to win the presidency.”
Source :Skai
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