France appears to be entering uncharted waters as a possible cohabitation of the liberal president, Emmanuel Macron, with a far-right prime minister raises concerns about the distribution of powers.

The French president after the election will soon have to call a prime minister from a hostile party to lead the French government, possibly the Jordan Bardella from the far-right National Coalition.

Macron’s centrists are expected to suffer heavy defeats in parliamentary elections on June 30 and July 7, and the president will have to turn to the opposition to form a government under his presidency, as his term runs until 2027.

Cohabitation is not an unprecedented political event for France, as it has happened three times in the country’s modern history. The Conservative Prime Ministers Jacques Chirac and Edouard Balladour they cooperated with the Socialist President Francois Mitterrand in the 1980s and 1990s, while the socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin “cohabited” with Chirac from 1997 to 2002.

However, this time it is different as the previous political pairings all came from the mainstream politics, which favored the partnership. Working with a prime minister from the fringes takes France into uncharted waters.

The prospect has already caused alarm in the EU and beyond. Other EU countries fear it will have devastating consequences for France’s position as a global strategic power and key EU member, with Brussels losing one of the bloc’s few remaining members that can take the lead on the international stage on issues such as industrial policy and the defense.

Efforts to control the country’s high debt or boost support for Ukraine will also become more difficult if a far-right government competes for power with Macron.

Support Ukraine

The French president has exclusive powers over defense and foreign policy.

The reality, however, is not so simple. Since the budget must be agreed in parliament, any new defense funds for Ukraine could be blocked in the National Assembly.

Brussels fears that a French parliament dominated by right-wing and left-wing populists could sabotage EU defense plans and its support for Ukraine.

Some of France’s closest allies, such as Germany and Poland, have warned that a victory for the pro-Russian far-right in France could undermine European unity at a time when the continent is threatened by Russia.

One of the questions being raised is whether the French parliament will be able to ratify an EU defense fund or whether France will invest in defense preparedness after the July elections.

The debt bomb

The country’s weak economy could also pose a risk to the eurozone, a risk that will hardly be countered by the tensions at the summit in Paris.

With an alarmingly high debt ratio of more than 110% of gross domestic product, Macron is called upon to balance the differences to calm markets and convince them he will keep the country’s finances on a sustainable path.

The far-right plans to roll back Macron’s hugely unpopular pension reform and lower the retirement age to 62 from 64, which will have consequences for the country’s finances.

The incoming French government will face tough negotiations in Brussels to avoid a fine over the level of its public debt.

The system at the extremes

French “cohabitation” governments have been a problem for Brussels in the past. The Mitterrand and Chirac governments engaged in constant power struggles with their prime ministers, but tried to present an image of unity in Brussels because they agreed on the basics: France’s place in the EU, the rule of law and a shared understanding of the democratic discourse and kindness.

This time, a cohabitation would test the limits of the system.

The French prime minister and president will also have to agree on who to send to Brussels to take on the important role of France’s EU commissioner. In the past, France was allowed to send two commissioners during a period of government cohabitation, but this time will not have that luxury.

Macron and potential French prime minister Bardela are already at loggerheads over the commissioner. Bardella argued that the future government, not Macron, should choose the candidate. “It will be among the first decisions we make,” Bardella said, adding that he is considering names to recommend.

Macron’s allies, however, disagree and stress that Macron should nominate the next French commissioner, as the president has always done.

But the reality is not so clear. According to the EU treaties, it is the ministers of the 27 EU countries who propose the list of Commissioners, not the heads of state or government. This will strengthen Bardella.

However, the commissioners must be accepted by the Commission president and approved by the European Council, which Macron attends.

Reduced influence

Before Macron’s announcement on June 9 to call early elections, France was expected to secure a strong position as vice president of the European Commission, responsible for major economic portfolios such as competition.

But with Macron weakened after losing two consecutive elections and a powerful Bardela taking over the reins of government, infighting is expected that could weaken France.

A senior French official said a far-right government is likely to align with key French interests such as support for nuclear power and farmers.

Analysts agree that cohabitation could lead to chaotic politics and undermine France’s influence in Europe.