President Emmanuel Macron called early parliamentary elections in France to “clarify”, as he claimed, the political situation with the result of the second round, however, further complicating it, increasing political uncertainty.

While increasing support for his left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) prevented the far-right party National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen to rise to power, the political landscape remains murky, reports CNN in its analysis.

The questions being asked are many both about who could be the next prime minister of France and whether Macron’s bet “paid off” in the end.

Shock victory, but not decisive

After leading in the first round of elections, the National Rally is closer than ever to the brink of power with leadership expectations rising to form France’s first far-right government since the pro-Nazi Vichy government in World War II.

However, after a week of political negotiations, in which more than 200 left-wing and centrist candidates withdrew from the second round in an attempt to avoid a split in the democratic front, the New People’s Front, an alliance of several parties from the far left to more moderate centre-left, took first place, garnering the most seats in the decisive second round.

The New People’s Front won 182 seats in the National Assembly, making it the largest group in the 577-seat parliament. The centrist alliance Ensemble Macron’s party, which came third in the first round, increased its numbers and won 163 seats. On the contrary, the National Gathering party and its allies, despite leading in the first round, won 143 seats.

The result, however, does not reveal the winner of the elections to the left alliance since it failed to win 289 seats, required for an absolute majority, which increases political uncertainty due to the impossibility of forming a stable government.

Currently, the formation of the democratic front with the withdrawal of candidates from the left and the centrist faction of Macron is recorded as a victory that led to the reversal of the results of the first round and the loss of the first place by the National Rally.

The far right stronger than ever

Crowds of supporters had arrived at the RN party headquarters in Paris to witness the moment many had been waiting for for decades: Confirmation that their party had won the most seats in the French parliament.

Disappointment was evident when estimates began to be published showing the National Rally in third place. THE Jordan Bardellathe 28-year-old head of parliamentary elections chosen by Le Pen expressed his displeasure while protesting the dangerous electoral deals made between the NFP and Ensemble that “deprived the French people” of an RN-led government.

“Deciding to deliberately paralyze our institutions, Emmanuel Macron pushed the country towards uncertainty and instability,” Bardella said, calling the democratic front an “alliance of dishonour”.

However, the success of the RN should not be underestimated. In the 2017 election, when Macron came to power, the RN won just eight seats, while in 2022, it increased its strength to 89 seats.

In Sunday’s election it won 125 seats, making it the largest party. It will likely remain a strong force in the next parliament, while the stability of the left coalition has not been tested.

Will the Left stay united?

A month ago, the New People’s Front did not exist. As of Sunday, it is the largest political group in the French parliament, and France’s next prime minister could come from its ranks. Its name comes from the effort to resurrect the first Popular Front that prevented the far right from gaining power in 1936. Sunday’s results are a repeat of the same story.

Although it achieved its founding purpose, it is unclear whether the coalition will be sustained. The hastily formed bloc includes several parties: the far-left France Insubordinate party, the Socialists, the Ecologists and the center-left Place Publique.

The alliance is currently characterized by polyphony. Each party celebrated the results separately with two of its most prominent figures – Jean-Luc Mélenchon of France Insubordinate and moderate Raphael Glucksman of Place Publique barely speaking.

Disagreements over economic and foreign policy could widen as the NFP’s expansionary spending plans – which include raising the minimum wage, capping the price of some food and energy and scrapping Macron’s pension reforms – clash with the European Union’s restrictive fiscal rules and France’s need to rein in its growing deficit.

At the same time, Macron comes out weakened. His decision to call a snap election with his party trailing in the polls confounded even the sharpest political analysts, troubled his closest allies and confused many French voters. He called an election after his party was crushed by the RN in last month’s European Parliament election, saying he could not ignore the message voters had sent him and wanted to clarify the situation.

But Sunday’s results show that the opposite has been achieved. Éduoard Philippe, a former French prime minister and Macron ally, said what was “intended to be a clarification has led to a lot of ambiguity”. Although Macron’s party bounced back from the first round, it lost around 100 seats compared to the 2022 election.

Where is France going?

The first decision Macron must make is to appoint a new prime minister. He has already delayed that process by refusing Gabriel Attal’s resignation, asking him to remain in office for the time being.

Usually, the French president appoints a prime minister from the largest group in parliament. But it is not clear which party within the Left alliance it will come from. Mélenchon’s party won the most seats within the NFP, but Macron’s allies have repeatedly refused to work with France Insubordinate, saying it is just as extreme as the National Rally and therefore unfit to govern.

In order to achieve the majority needed to pass laws, the NFP will likely have to forge alliances with Macron’s Ensemble. Finding common ground will be an arduous task, meaning a political stalemate is likely. Without a clear majority, a minority government this month could face a vote of no confidence, which could lead to multiple governments being shuffled.

One way out could be a “technocratic” government, which would include ministers with no party affiliation to manage day-to-day affairs. However, her appointment may be seen as anti-democratic and further rekindle populism. Italy is an example in this direction: after the prime ministership of Mario Draghi, the technocrat par excellence, the country elected the most far-right government since Benito Mussolini. While France has avoided a far-right government for now, the threat of the National Rally remains strong.