In a first conclusion the result of elections in France and Britain could be interpreted as a victory over the far-right and ultra-conservatives, with analysts however pointing out that the latter’s march may have merely slowed rather than stopped.

At the same time, the case of Iran, where the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on all matters of the state, but Massoud Pezeskian was elected as the new president, is also indicative of the same conclusion, as reported in an analysis by the Associated Press. long associated with the reform movement.

In France, the left-wing coalition came out on top in the election race with the far-right falling to third despite winning the first round. The UK’s centre-left Labor Party has returned to power after 14 years of Conservative rule. Iranian voters, who had limited options, chose the more moderate of two candidates to replace hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed when his helicopter crashed.

But with voters in many countries still divided and disillusioned, largely because of the worsening economy, analysts say the far-right’s march may have only slowed, not stopped.

The delayed crisis

This is a crisis that is delayed, not prevented,” Eurasia Group analyst Mujtaba Rahman said of the outcome in France, where voters rejected the far-right National Rally from governing the country, but they also directed their anger at centrist President Emmanuel Macron, who called the snap election. Macron’s centrist coalition finished in second place after Sunday’s second round of elections.

Despite his victory New People’s Front no party or coalition managed to win an outright majority, heightening fears of misgovernment as France enters a period of turmoil at a time of European and global instability.

“It’s not a good situation for France, for Europe or for NATO,” said Rahman, chief executive of the Eurasia Group. “France is a member of the G-7, a permanent member of the Security Council (UN) … Anything that weakens Emmanuel Macron, anything that forces him to focus on domestic affairs will reduce his own and France’s influence in the world.”

Instead, Britain’s new government is committed to reclaiming its international role after years of turning its attention to domestic issues due to leaving the European Union.

The Prime Minister’s Labor Party Keir Starmer won a huge majority in Thursday’s election, taking 412 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives, in power since 2010, saw their strength reduced to 121 seats, the worst result in the party’s 190-year history.

Labor will be able to implement its policies, but the picture is shakier than the majority suggests. Labour’s victory was built on changing political conditions: anger at the Conservatives, continued polls and a far-right party on its right, Reform UK, which eroded Conservative support.

The reform won only five seats but garnered almost 14% of the vote. Its leader, Nigel Farage, has said his plan is to take over the role of true opposition to the Labor government from the moderate Conservatives ahead of the next election, which is due in 2029.

The loss of trust in the political system

Europe as a whole is struggling to cope with the gradual loss of confidence on the part of the electorate towards governments to deal with globalisation, but also the resulting winners and losers, reckons Robin Niblett, former director of the think-tank Chatham House.

“We’re just in a very, very difficult period of domestic politics. So, I don’t think this is the return of the Left,” he said. “We are in a very volatile and dangerous time, but I would say that the moderate parties are still holding their ground.”

Regarding the increase in the percentages of Marine Le Pen’s party, Philippe Marlier, a professor of French and European politics at University College London, believes that “they may just be waiting for their right time.”

“Of course this is a setback for the National Rally, but it can argue that ‘we lost because all the other parties rallied against us, otherwise we would have prevailed,'” he points out.

“Especially if there is political unrest, which is likely, they will bide their time. And in three years, in the presidential elections, Le Pen would be strong enough to win.”

High expectations for the outcome in Iran

In Iran, where a presidential election was held after President Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May, Pezeskian, a heart surgeon and longtime member of parliament, was elected.

Pezeskian is associated with the movement that aims to change the country’s Shiite theocracy from within, while seeking better relations with the West, including Iran’s oldest enemy, the United States.

The first round of elections in Iran saw the lowest turnout since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The Iranian regime chose the candidates and no internationally recognized observers monitored the election process.

However, both Iranian and international observers who have expressed high expectations for the election of the new president may be disappointed. Pezeskian has openly stated that he believes Khamenei has the final say on all matters of state and has honored Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States.

Pezeskian “faces extensive constraints on his authority from Khamenei and his top aides and allies, all of whom are hardline conservatives,” the New York-based Soufan Center said in an analysis.

“Khamenei called for unity and after the results were announced he advised the president-elect to continue on the path laid out by Raisi, an indirect warning to Pezeskian not to overstep the bounds of his power,” the analysis said.

Voters in many countries are characterized by anger towards incumbent governments.

Rob Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester, says that around the world, voters hit by high inflation and cost-of-living squeezes “have expressed great dissatisfaction with the government’s performance”, adding that “the ideology is systematically overstated by those whose job it is to explain elections.”