China is not the only one, in diplomatic forums, that has refrained from criticizing the Russian invasion of Ukraine. When the UN Security Council tried to pass a resolution condemning the war started by Vladimir Putin, India and the United Arab Emirates also abstained, along with Beijing.
It is not necessary to look far to understand what ties the Indian government to Moscow: Russia is the main supplier of armaments to India, which, even if it tries to diversify its market, still depends on supplies and on Russian military cooperation to modernize its old-fashioned air defense.
Second largest supplier of big weapons in the world, behind only the US, Russia was responsible for 20% of exports from 2016 to 2020, according to Sipri (Stockholm International Peace Institute). And the biggest share —23%— went to India. Following are China (18%) and Algeria (15%).
On the other hand, India also occupies the second place in a ranking, as the second largest importer of large weapons — the first is Saudi Arabia. New Delhi was responsible for 9.5% of imports in the period, and half of the amount was purchased from Russia. Then come France (18%) and Israel (13%).
It is true that the Indian government tried to expand its network of suppliers and mitigate dependence on Moscow — there was a 53% drop in Indian imports from Russia compared to the years 2011 to 2015. renowned in the subject, attributes the retraction of Russian participation in the arms market, which went from 26% to 20%.
The attempt, however, did not last long, and agreements recently struck between Moscow and New Delhi are expected to lead to a boom in Russian exports in the coming years. In December, Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed a ten-year military and technical cooperation program from 2021 to 2031.
Modi has so far not condemned Putin’s actions in Ukraine. He expressed, in a recent statement, “deep anguish at the loss of life and property due to the ongoing conflict”, but without pressuring the Kremlin. He also said he was willing to “contribute in any way to peace efforts”. The neutral stance does not indicate that important bilateral Indo-Ukrainian relations do not exist.
India was one of the first nations to recognize Ukraine’s independence, decreed in 1991, after the end of the Soviet Union. The country is, according to information from the Indian Foreign Ministry, the largest destination for Ukrainian exports in the Asia-Pacific region and the fifth largest globally. Indians are also a quarter of Ukraine’s 76,000 foreign students, official estimates show.
In addition to military cooperation, there are also other factors that must be taken into account to understand the Indian stance, explains LÃa Rodriguez de la Vega, deputy director of the Asian Affairs Committee of the Cari (Argentine Council for International Relations).
This includes cooperation in the area of ​​nuclear energy, with Russia building a new reactor at the Kudankulam plant, the largest in India, and also supporting the country’s inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a forum of nuclear technology suppliers that seeks to contribute to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Also part of the equation is the fact that the Putin government constitutes a space for dialogue with China, a country with which India has a fragmented relationship, especially due to territorial disputes.
It is also necessary to consider the Indian foreign policy model, highlights Rodriguez to sheet. “India has always tried to maintain independence in foreign relations. This stance was for a long time described as non-aligned, and today as ‘multilateral’, that is, serving national interests with all partners, regardless of who they are. “, she explains.
Even before the invasion of Ukraine, Russian officials publicly spoke out about the importance of partnership with India, voicing how central Moscow is to the country.
Roman Babushkin, Russian chargé d’affaires in New Delhi, told local newspapers he hoped the partnership between the countries would “continue at the same level as we enjoy today”. “Russia is the only country that is sharing sophisticated technologies with India,” he stressed.
The partnership between New Delhi and Moscow has already created rifts with Washington, another important Indian partner and one of the main diplomatic actors in the Eastern European war. The acquisition of five battalions of the advanced Russian anti-aircraft system S-400, with the ability to frame targets up to 600 km, led the US to express discontent, still in 2019.
Here weighs the alliance of the so-called Quad, English acronym for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a group formed by the US, Japan, Australia and India resurrected in 2017 to encircle China geopolitically and militarily. With the exception of India, all the others have taken a tougher stance on Moscow.
To the American newspaper The Washington Post, analysts signaled that India’s detached stance could easily erode the relationship with the government of Joe Biden. “If India wants to maintain good ties not just with the Quad, but with Europe, that sideline position will become increasingly untenable,” said Derek Grossman, a defense analyst at the Rand Corporation, a US think tank.
Rodriguez differs in the analysis. For the expert, the stance does not necessarily fragment the relationship with the US. “India’s abstention from the UN Security Council was predictable. In addition, Modi continues to have dialogue with Putin in a way that he can serve as a liaison in instances that are necessary, in addition to India continuing to be an important actor in the region of Asia-Pacific.”
