His return seemed almost certain Donald Trump at the White House last week, after Joe Biden’s successive sarcasms and sidesteps in the Democratic “camp”. But the departure of the current president with a parallel expression of support for the vice-president Kamala Harris seems to give new life to the election campaign.

All indications are that Harris will officially secure the nomination at the Democratic convention in Chicago in August. Already within the first 24 hours after Biden’s announcements campaign donations increased by 81 million dollars. A lot of money comes from entrepreneurs, who are known to hate uncertainty more than anything else and are obviously relieved after his initiative Biden to clarify the landscape.

“America first” and for Harris?

It is not easy to define precisely the difference between the economic policy chosen by Joe Biden and that planned by Kamala Harris. Dan Mallinson, an assistant professor of public administration at the University of Harrisburg, tells Deutsche Welle that “Harris is seen as more progressive than Biden, but I don’t see her pursuing such a different economic policy. Both equally support workers’ rights on issues such as parental leave, while favoring social intervention policies such as Medicaid and Medicare to provide medical care.”

For the business world, the question is more whether and how different Kamala Harris is from Donald Trump rather than Joe Biden. One of the main priorities of the former president, who is now seeking a return to the White House, is an economic policy of protectionism with the central slogan “America First”, which translates into concrete measures such as the imposition of tariffs. In the pre-election campaign, Trump claims that he will increase tariffs on imports from around the world by 10%, while on imports from China the increase will reach 60%.

Despite declarations of cooperation, Joe Biden as president not only did not rush to cancel tariffs imposed by his predecessor, but also established new restrictions on imports. However, “horizontal” tariffs such as the one advocated by the Republican candidate would have negative consequences, raising prices in the US, multiplying inflationary pressures and, ultimately, keeping lending rates high.

The threat of an international trade war worries many representatives of the business world, especially those active in the Chinese market. Rather, they see the strengthening of Kamala Harris as a positive omen, which seems to weaken the “urine wind in the sails” of the Republicans. Favorable prospects are also being erased for innovative sectors, such as renewable energy sources and electric mobility.

Stocks, dollar, cryptocurrencies

On the other hand, the few industries that aren’t excited by the prospect of a Democratic victory include the traditional auto industry, conventional energy production and cryptocurrencies. They occupy a special place in the economic agenda of the Republicans and had almost discounted a victory of Donald Trump.

Among other things, the Republican candidate promises to deregulate the fossil fuel market, end the “illegal” and “un-American” restrictions imposed by the Democrats on the use of cryptocurrencies, but also to oppose the plans of the US Central Bank which has announced the issuance digital currency, complementing the functionality of banknotes and coins.

Harris’ economic policy

So far we’ve heard little about the economy from Kamala Harris. However, a look back at the recent past may lead us to some useful conclusions. As Attorney General (Minister of Justice) in California, Harris had taken a hard line against the oil industry, as well as the banking industry. As vice president, he certainly supported all the main axes of the Biden policy, including the plans for green energy, the American Rescue Plan to combat the consequences of the pandemic, but also the Inflation Reduction Plan to strengthen domestic production.

At the same time, he supported laws such as CHIPS and the Science Act, which provide investment incentives for semiconductor production within the US. It opposes “horizontal” import tariffs, but is keeping a close eye on the trade brawl with China. In any case, says analyst Dan Mallinson at Deutsche Welle, “one of the challenges for Harris right now is to put her own stamp on economic policy – and more – without deconstructing the agenda she implemented as vice president , together with Joe Biden.” If she manages to convince voters that she can tame inflation and create new jobs without disrupting the global economy, then – the American analyst estimates – Kamala Harris has a serious chance of going down in history as the first woman to be elected president of the USA.

Edited by: Yiannis Papadimitriou