It is now clear that the situation in Middle East has entered a path of no return. What does this mean; That Israel, with Netanyahu’s rhetoric and the policy he follows after the October 7 invasion by Hamas, leads either to a stalemate for the Israeli prime minister, or to a generalization of the war, with uncontrollable dimensions and consequences.

The rocket attack on the playground where children were playing, in the Golan Heights, is the reason. THE Hezbollah has not taken responsibility. Nevertheless, the Israelis present evidence and the US categorically states that the rocket was launched by the group based in Lebanon and fully supported by Iran. Leaks from the Israeli services speak of a Falaq-1 rocket, which is manufactured in Iran and launched from Hezbollah silos in southern Lebanon. A clear position… as to targeting the enemy.

The situation, then, is – once again – complex. On the one hand Israel and especially the Benjamin Netanyahu, reiterates at every opportunity that the next target is Hezbollah, and that his goal is to crush the organization. The Israeli Prime Minister did not hesitate to reiterate his goals even in the US Congress, using highly bellicose rhetoric, despite the fact that there was serious backlash against him, both inside and outside the chamber, for the massive war he is waging on the Gaza Strip. .

The US is on his side Israel, as always, however, the extreme intervention of the IDF in Gaza, with the tens of thousands of dead civilians and the infinite humanitarian crisis that has been caused in the region, has dealt a strong blow to the Democratic government, much more so in view of the elections on November 5 . Typical is the statement of the American Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, who “suggested” to Israel to stop the operation in Gaza, in order to focus on the biggest opponent, which is Hezbollah.

All of the above, if put together, demonstrate a new scenario, the beginning of a next, perhaps even wilder, phase in the Middle East.

Let’s look at the data we have:

1)O Netanyahu depends politically on the outcome of the war. As long as he is waging war, either with Hamas, or with Hezbollah, or with Iran if the situation develops so much, the Israeli president will remain in his position. If he is forced, in any way, to back down, then he will disappear politically. Analysts believe that with a possible fall of Netanyahu from the prime ministership, there will automatically be a solution to the impasse that has been created in the region.

2) The determining factor is the US elections. Joe Biden is accused of taking a…strange attitude, unclear, enhancing the chaos in the region. Donald Trump, on the one hand, aligns himself with the many people who blame Biden for the massacre in Gaza, and on the other hand, declares himself an advocate of the total elimination of Hamas and, of course, an absolute supporter of Netanyahu, with whom he met in the US.

3)The Iran factor. The massive rocket attack on Israel showed that not only do they have the capabilities, but they are determined to use them. If we get to an outright Iran-Israel war, then the risk of having a global event involving the major powers will be closer than ever. Then, the situation will really be out of control.

4) His -forced- involvement Lebanon. Lebanon is not Gaza. It is not a contested state, under unspecified status. The invasion of Israeli forces into Lebanese territory, with any justification, would constitute a clear territorial violation and could lead to a declaration of war. And that’s not all… Escalation in the region, with the involvement of official states, can activate all the alliances in the region, creating a landscape of chaos.

5)H Hezbollah it is not Hamas. The dynamics of the organization is much greater, it has the direct support of Iran, which has repeatedly stated that a Spanish operation in Lebanon will open the gates of hell.

6) The possibility of one global scale. A possible involvement of Iran cannot be ruled out to activate Russia in the region. Although the war in Ukraine continues unabated, the Kremlin has significant interests in the region. Cooperation with Iran, at all levels, is at an advanced stage.

No one is in a position to know how the situation will develop if the dominoes of escalation begin. No one can predict, with all the tension that has gathered on the planet, where the world may be headed. A single spark is enough to cause a megafire, let alone the huge hearths that are open for a very long time and are constantly fed with new “fuel”.