On Tuesday, the senior commander of the pro-Iranian organization was “killed” in an Israeli raid in Beirut Hezbollah, Fouad Soukr, which the organization confirmed 24 hours late. The following day, the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniya, was assassinated in Tehran, with Israel not confirming any involvement and Iran threatening “severe punishment”. On top of that, an Israeli military spokesman said on Thursday that the head of Hamas’s military arm, Mohammed Daif, considered the “architect” of the October 7 terror attack, had been killed in a raid in Gaza last month.

“Serious consequences for the wider region” sees Kelly Pettio, a researcher at European Council on Foreign Policy (ECFR) with responsibility for the Middle East. As she tells DW, “it is too early to accurately predict the reactions, but it is considered certain that Hamas and Hezbollah are becoming even more popular in the Arab world.” Moreover, “by killing Haniya, Israel neutralized a political leadership that represented the most moderate wing within Hamas and had assumed a key role in the ceasefire negotiations” with constant mediation by Qatar, Egypt and the US. “This means,” estimates Petiillo, “that the Palestinians will support even more the military arm of Hamas, which will now be able to claim: Here, Haniya insisted on a diplomatic solution, and you see what the result was…”

THE Hamas, which has maintained control over the Gaza Strip since 2007 and is considered a terrorist organization in the EU and US, is based on two wings: the Qatar-based civilian wing and the military arm led by hardliner Yahya Sinwar, who remains in Gaza. The latest events are expected to strengthen the most intransigent of the organization, such as Sinuar.

Deadlock in negotiations?

In addition, the assassination of Ismail Haniya in particular is expected to have a serious impact on peace initiatives, such as the one recently undertaken by China, launching a compromise between 14 different Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas. As Simon Wolfgang Fuchs, an assistant professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, tells DW, “there are fears that all the efforts that have been made to reach an agreement on the release of the hostages – which are supposed to have borne fruit recently – are now being postponed for the distant future. Hamas cannot return to a state of business as usual.”

But the same applies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. “Following the assassination of Fouad Soukr, the organization is under tremendous pressure to retaliate,” says Kelly Pettillo. In addition, the American analyst points out, “it is particularly worrying that Hezbollah is expected to reconsider the possibilities of involvement in the Middle East, in favor of Hamas”, while until now it declared that it would end the attacks in case an agreement was reached with Israel, the which will provide for reasonable compensation.

“Humiliation for Iran”

Analysts warn that even a direct Hezbollah attack on Tel Aviv is no longer out of the question. Related threats had already been issued in the past by the leader of the organization, Sheikh Nasrallah, in the event that the Israelis would proceed with an attack on Beirut, which indeed happened in the last few days.

Another variable is the role of Iran, which until today anyway supported the action of Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza. “The targeted assassination of Ismail Haniya in Tehran, and in fact at a time that coincides with the inauguration of the country’s new president, constitutes a humiliation for Iran itself,” points out Simon Wolfgang Fuchs. “It’s as if Israel wants to prove that it can strike outside its borders, while Iran can’t even protect its guests at such an important ceremony.”

Edited by: Yiannis Papadimitriou