Pictures from the airports of Cologne, Washington and Moscow capture the biggest prisoner exchange since the end of the Cold War: 20 prisoners, including five Germans, are now free. Chancellor Soltz also greets Russian dissidents, President Biden hugs journalist Evan Gershkowitzwhile President Putin welcomes Vadim Krasikov, the “Tiergarten killer”.

Everyone is happy. Especially for Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the release of such a well-known prisoner just three months before the election is a great success. But could this exchange be the trigger for further negotiations between the West and Russia – even in the context of ending the war in Ukraine?

Success for Biden and Harris, Trump irritated

Since the beginning of his term until today, Biden has succeeded in freeing several Americans from the Russia, despite the tense atmosphere due to the war in Ukraine. However, in the midst of the election campaign, the timing of this historic exchange has a completely different weight for the Democrats.

The size of the “victory” scored by the Democrats is also shown by Trump’s reaction: the Republican politician commented on the agreement with obvious annoyance, tried to reduce its importance and implied in a television interview that money was given in exchange for the prisoners – without of course refer to any relevant evidence.

Trump reportedly has some sympathy for Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin chief, however, would never enter the process of jeopardizing months of negotiations in anticipation of Trump’s return to power. After all, the Republican presidential candidate is extremely unpredictable and impulsive. And so far he has emphasized many times that he would offer absolutely nothing in exchange for the release of American prisoners.

No concessions in the war in Ukraine

Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, however, made it clear that from the point of view of USA the exchange of prisoners will have no direct influence on the situation in Ukraine.

Furthermore, as Sullivan explained, there was no direct communication with Putin at any time during the negotiations. Biden and Putin have not spoken once in more than two years — their last phone call was two weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The negotiations for the prisoner exchange appear to have been carried out by the intelligence services, according to Moscow.

War depends on many factors

According to Russian political scientist Tatiana Stanovaya, it does not seem particularly likely that the exchange of prisoners will affect the negotiations on the war in Ukraine. The evolution of the war depends on many different factors. “The result of the American elections, the internal changes in Ukraine, the state of affairs on the front and the military resources of both sides have a much greater influence on who, how and when will seek to achieve peace in Ukraine,” the expert finds in her analysis for the Carnegie American think tank.

“For Berlin, the possibility of freeing political prisoners turned into a strong incentive to overcome certain legal and political obstacles – that is, regarding the release of Krasikov,” Stanovaya further commented on the “killer of Tiergarten”.

Putin does not want to negotiate yet

Russian foreign policy expert Fyodor Lukyanov agrees that we should not expect major changes in West-Russia communication. It is of course positive to have a communication channel, but this does not tell us anything about the future.

The German political scientist David Shirakoff points out that despite the huge differences, there have been at least talks between Moscow and Washington, which have already reached a result. “The question is whether each time some kind of agreement can be reached and thus a solution emerges. In this case it seems that is exactly what happened because President Putin was indeed willing to negotiate.” But this is a fundamentally different stance compared to the one adopted by Putin in the war against Ukraine.

Edited by: Giorgos Passas