The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is escalating raising fears of spreading the war regionally and increasing the risks especially for Lebanon, whose situation is extremely fragile due to the internal crises of the last five years.

The stakes for Lebanon are far greater than in 2006, when the month-long war with Israel ended in a draw. Lebanon has been plagued by long-term political and economic crises which left him in debt, without a steady supply of electricity, a proper banking system and in rampant poverty.

And with Hezbollah’s military power significantly greater, concerns are being raised that a new war would be far more destructive and protracted.

Can Lebanon afford another war?

A repeat of the 2006 war or an even worse scenario

Since Hezbollah and Israel began hostilities, firing rockets and drones a day after the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza began on October 7, the conflict has been mostly confined to border towns. The threat of a wider war, however, has forced Lebanon to proceed to equip hospitals with supplies and prepare public schools so that they are ready to receive people seeking refuge.

A rare Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut last month that killed a top Hezbollah commander sparked a flurry of meetings between aid groups and the Lebanese government, said Laila Al-Amineh, head of international aid group Mercy Corps’ Beirut office. It is one of about 60 organizations helping the government in its relief efforts.

The government and UN agencies prepared a comprehensive response plan this month, which is based on two possible scenarios: a limited escalation similar to the 2006 war, with about 250,000 people displaced, and a worst-case scenario such as one that envisages a “uncontrollable conflict” that will displace at least 1 million people.

The UN-drafted plan, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, calls for a monthly cost of $50 million in the event of a limited escalation and $100 million if an all-out war breaks out.

Lebanon’s government said emergency funding would come from creditors and aid organizations. But authorities have struggled to find money to care for 100,000 displaced people and about 60,000 people living in conflict-ridden areas, which costs about $24 million a month.

Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who is leading aid operations, told reporters after an emergency cabinet meeting on Sunday that the morning attacks would not change the plan.

“We are already looking at scenarios of all the possibilities that could happen, among which is the extension of hostilities,” Yassin said.

Debt-strapped and cash-strapped Lebanon is desperate for bailout money.

Decades of corruption and political paralysis have left Lebanon’s banks barely functional, while electricity services are almost entirely in the hands of diesel generator owners and fuel suppliers. Public service institutions rely on aid groups and international donors to function rudimentarily. Lebanese who once lived in relative comfort are receiving food and financial aid to survive.

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic further affected the economy, and the Beirut Port explosion leveled several neighborhoods in the heart of the capital. Lebanon’s banks and ruling class resisted painful reforms as a condition for a bailout from the International Monetary Fund, while infrastructure continued to wither and living conditions worsened.

Tourism, which officials had relied on to help rebuild the economy, has also been hit by the border conflict with Israel.

And unlike in 2006, Lebanon is home to more than 1 million Syrian refugees who have fled their country. Health Minister Firas Abiad said Lebanon’s health system is not well-equipped to treat more people in the event of an all-out war, as international funding for Syrian refugees has been dwindling.

In April, Yassin said the country only had half the money needed to respond to the conflict and the resulting humanitarian needs.

The damaged infrastructure of Lebanon

In 2006, Israel bombed the runways of Lebanon’s only airport, largely disabling it, and imposed an air and sea blockade. The bombings destroyed critical infrastructure and flattened neighborhoods, causing $3.1 billion in damage and losses, according to the World Bank.

But aid groups were eventually able to send supplies through the country’s ports and occasionally through the airport using the limited runway space that remained. In its assessment of the war, the United Nations said its aid efforts were not a response to a humanitarian crisis. “People didn’t die from poor sanitation, starvation or disease. They died from bombs and shells,” UN OCHA said in a report a month after the war.

Many Lebanese managed to flee to neighboring Syria, where a 2011 uprising plunged the country into civil war. It is unclear how easy crossing the border would be this time, for both civilians and humanitarian groups.

It is also unclear whether Beirut’s port, which has yet to be fully rebuilt after the devastating 2020 explosion, will have sufficient capacity in the event of a wider war. Damaged grain warehouses that collapsed in 2022 and the financial crisis have led to minimal food storage.

“Lebanon obviously has food and fuel reserves for two to three months, but what will happen after that window of time?” Al Amin said. “We only have one airport and we cannot move things through our land borders. It would be difficult to bring supplies into the country.”

More powerful Hezbollah

In 2006, Hezbollah reportedly had about 15,000 missiles in its arsenal, “but more recent unofficial estimates suggest that number has multiplied by almost 10 times,” said Dina Arakji, a partner at UK-based risk consultancy Control Risks. Kingdom.

The group has also “acquired more advanced weapons, including precision missiles and variants of Iranian weapons, as well as Chinese and Russian weapons,” he said.

Hezbollah, which relies on a network of Iranian-backed allied groups that could enter the conflict, has also greatly expanded its arsenal and drone capabilities, against which Israeli air defenses are less effective.

Lebanese officials and international diplomats hope a ceasefire deal in Gaza will de-escalate tensions in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has said it will stop its attacks along the border if there is a ceasefire in Gaza.