About a year ago his death Yevgeny Prigozhin not only did it leave many questions about the causes of the crash of the plane carrying him. The biggest question concerned the future and leadership of his private army, the Wagner group, which was the spearhead of Moscow’s expansionist policy in Africa and especially in the Sahel zone.

In recent years, Russian military and paramilitary forces have taken advantage of the turmoil in the region, when military dictators under the guise of fighting jihadists staged coups and seized power in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and drove out French and other Western forces in the region. . Russian trainers arrived in all these countries along with aid in military hardware.

In control of the Kremlin

This was a victory for her Moscow against the Westerners, especially against the French, who have traditionally dominated the region and were essentially forced into a disorderly retreat, which was also assessed in the French press as a geopolitical defeat for President Macron. Prigozhin’s death was swiftly “responded” by the Kremlin, with the clarification that any Russian forces in the region would pass directly under the jurisdiction of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Sources of the latter spoke of plans to deploy up to 40,000 soldiers in the region, with the aim of consolidating Russian control there, in the context of an “African Corps”.

However, these optimistic statements could not hide an image of the initial disorganization of the forces there and the “autonomy” of some Wagner executives, who continued to wear her uniforms and often operate on their own accord. In addition, the question arose as to whether Russia, which continues to be at war in Ukraine, can allocate the means and personnel for this “second front” with the West.

A painful defeat

The largest force was initially sent to Mali and engaged in bloody clashes, often with heavy casualties. The most notable incident occurred at the end of last July, when 80 Russian soldiers were killed in northern Mali in a clash with hard-line Tuareg tribal fighters, who often work with jihadist groups against the region’s governments. This incident was even quickly exploited politically by Kiev, claiming that the Ukrainian secret services had fed the rebels with information about the positions of the Russians, thus helping them to surprise the adversary.

This information may not have been verified, but it confirms the importance that developments in the region have for many foreign “players”. For the West, any obstacle to the Russian strategy to bring the region under its complete control is obviously welcome. And of course they are also a blow to the prestige of President Vladimir Putin. The original Russian plan to dislodge the jihadists is proving overly optimistic, with the exception of some successes in central Mali. In Burkina Faso and Niger there are currently only about 100 Russian military personnel who are limited to the role of trainers.

Unstable frame

The problem for Moscow is twofold. On the one hand, it cooperates with governments based on violence and terrorism, which do not necessarily have a broad popular base and are in danger at any moment of falling victim to another coup by another group. On the other hand, Russia has not managed to penetrate economically and commercially in the region to the extent it would like, so as to create an identification or intertwining of interests with the local rulers.

Moscow’s commercial transactions with the African continent correspond to only 5% of the corresponding European ones. This reinforces “centrifugal tendencies”, exemplified by the example of the Central African Republic, which has traditionally been under the Russian umbrella and recently appears to be responding to President Macron’s courtship.

The Russian side responds by trying to find supports in other countries where the French and American presence is maintained, such as Niger’s neighbor Chad. The individual fronts of this confrontation with the West are many, the environment extremely fluid and surprises are far from rare. Neither side intends to hand over Africa without a fight, especially at a time when Beijing has also significantly expanded its activities there, with billions of weapons invested. The continuation is expected – at least from a journalistic point of view – exciting…