With two months to go before the 2024 US election, the race is on with mixed but mixed outlooks in 6 key states, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in each state.

Polls show Vice President Kamala Harris has an advantage over former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Donald Trump has a lead in Arizona. Likely voters in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania appear to be divided.

In each of them, an average of 15% of likely voters say they are still undecided about which candidate they will choose, suggesting that a significant percentage of voters could change their minds as the days go by and the election campaigns get underway.

50% of potential voters in Wisconsin choose Harris and 44% Trump. At Michigan 48% support Harris and 43% support Trump. In ArizonaTrump is at 49% to Harris’ 44%. At Georgia and the nevada, 48% support Harris and 47% support Trump. In pennsylvania, candidates are tied at 47%. The polls, conducted after the Democratic National Convention in August, reflect results among likely voters determined through a combination of past voting behavior and current voting intent.

The States – keys

The findings show that the states of Pennsylvania and Georgia are emerging as central players in the electoral contest for each candidate’s path to the White House. The president Joe Biden “conquered” all the above six states in 2020winning Georgia by just under 12,000 votes and Arizona by just over 10,000 votes. If Kamala Harris kept Biden’s 2020 wins outside of those six states and held Wisconsin and Michigan, a win in Pennsylvania plus a single electoral vote from anywhere else would give her the presidency.

If Trump holds North Carolina — a state he won in 2020 and widely seen as a battleground state in this year’s contest — wins in Georgia and Pennsylvania would put him over the top regardless of what happens in Wisconsin, Michigan or Nevada. In that scenario, even Arizona, where he currently holds a slim lead, would not be necessary for Trump to win another term as president.

The emergence of Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, replacing Biden, changed some things in the presidential race but left others behind. Financial issueswhich were a notable weak spot for Biden, remain one of the most important issues for prospective voters. An average of 39% of likely voters across states choose the economy as their top issue, with protecting democracy following at an average of 25%. However, Harris has managed to significantly close the gap with Trump as regards the economic issuesin relation to the dispute that had been created under Biden. According to current polls, Trump is more trustworthy than Harris on the economy by an average of 8 points.

Trump maintains however, one wide advantage as more reliable for its management immigrationwhile Harris has strengthened her lead over Biden as the most trusted to handle the abortions and reproductive rights, with women in those six states favoring her by an average of 27 percentage points.

In nearly all of these states, likely voters are more likely than Harris to describe Trump as having clear policy plans to solve the country’s problems (voters are evenly split on this issue in Wisconsin and Michigan), but the voters in those swing states largely describe Harris. About half in every state (between 46% and 51%) say Trump’s views and policies are so extreme that they pose a threat to the country, while about 4 in 10 (between 37% and 42%) say the same about Harris’ positions.

As for them independent voterswhose preferences in the presidential race vary widely from state to state, are likely to show they could change their minds about the race—about a quarter of independent likely voters or more feel that way across all states. They are also more likely than other respondents to say they believe neither Harris nor Trump will unite the country rather than divide it (33% on average across states say this), that neither has a clear political plans to solve the country’s problems (31% on average) and that neither cares about people’s real problems (26% on average).

Poll

Georgia and Pennsylvania

Both the Georgia as well as Pennsylvania remain in full swing, according to polls, with narrow margins and double-digit percentages of likely voters — 12% in Georgia and 16% in Pennsylvania — suggesting voters have not yet decided what they will vote for and are extremely likely to change their minds .

The black voters they are a key bloc in both states, particularly in Georgia, and polls have Harris at 85% among black likely voters in Georgia and 84% in Pennsylvania. In both states, however, black registered voters express less motivation to vote in this year’s election than white voters.

In Georgia, 61% of registered black voters say they are extremely motivated to vote compared to 70% of white voters, and in Pennsylvania, just 56% of black voters say they are deeply motivated to vote compared to 72% of white voters.

In both states there are significant gender gaps in presidential preference, with Harris leading by double digits among likely female voters in both states, while Trump has a correspondingly large lead among likely male voters. Harris slightly widened her lead in both states among suburban women, beating Trump by 16 points in Georgia and 18 points in Pennsylvania.

OR Harris has a majority of likely voters under the age of 35 in both states, leading 59% to 36% in Pennsylvania and 54% to 41% in Georgia. Younger voters in Arizona are marginally favoring Trump: 48% of likely voters under 35 say they support Trump, compared to 42% who support Harris. In Nevada, however, 54% of likely voters in that age group support Harris to 39% for Trump.

The white voters without a college degree; in both states they are broadly in favor of Trump, especially in Georgia, where about 7 in 10 support him. White voters with four-year college degrees, however, split in opposite directions in the two states. In Pennsylvania, they are broadly in favor of Harris, 59% to 37%, while in Georgia they are solidly in Trump’s camp, 65% to 32%. This dynamic is similar to the gap seen in the 2020 polls.

Where is Harris ahead and why?

Harris’ lead at Wisconsin and the Michigan largely due to likely Democratic-leaning voters, who now support Harris at 96% in Michigan and 95% in Wisconsin.

A March 2024 CNN poll in Michigan, conducted after Trump and Biden had secured enough delegates to win their parties’ nominations, showed only 75% of registered Democratic and Republican-leaning voters. Democrats voiced their support for Biden.

In both states, Harris’ support among some key groups in the Democratic Party base is similar to that of a Biden victory in 2020. Harris leads Trump among female likely voters (55% vs. 38% in Wisconsin, 54% vs. 38% in Michigan), white voters with a college degree (62% vs. 31% in Wisconsin, 52% vs. 41% in Michigan), and by 86% vs. 11% among of black likely voters in Michigan (the sample size for black likely voters is not large enough to report in Wisconsin).

In Michigan, voters under 35 share 43% for Harris and 42% for Trump. In Wisconsin, their percentage is 49% for Harris and 42% for Trump.

Polls suggest enthusiasm among the Democratic base may be a factor in both states. In Michigan, 72% of Democratic-aligned registered voters say they are extremely motivated to vote, up from 58% in March, while the numbers among GOP-aligned voters were essentially unchanged at about 7 in 10.

Arizona and Nevada

Arizona, where Trump has a slight lead overall, is the only state where Harris does not appear to have the support of Latino voters, younger voters and white voters with a college degree. The contrast with Nevada demonstrates the difference.

In Nevada, Latino potential voters they’re leaning toward Harris, 57% to 37%, while in Arizona they’re split, 49% for Harris to 43% for Trump. White voters in both states lean toward Trump by double digits (56% to 39% in Arizona, 55% to 41% in Nevada). Harris wins white college-educated voters in Nevada, 56% to 41%, while those voters are split evenly, 47% each, in Arizona.

Younger voters in Arizona “break” narrowly in favor of Trump: 48% of likely voters under the age of 35 say they support Trump, compared to 42% for Harris. In Nevada, however, likely voters in that age group are split 54 percent for Harris to 39 percent for Trump.

The gender gap in Arizona appears narrower than in other states, with women split 48% for Harris to 45% for Trump, while men run 55% for Trump to 41% for Harris. In Nevada, Harris has a 16 percentage point lead among likely female voters. Among male likely voters in Nevada, Trump has an 18 percentage point lead, 57% to 39%.