Only two federal states out of a total of 16 held elections on September 1. And only five million voters out of 61 million voted. Nevertheless, the elections in Thuringia and Saxony are of great importance at the federal level.

First, because for the first time the far-right AfD received more than a third of the vote and a newly formed populist party, the left-wing Alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW), achieved double-digit percentages. Second, because never before have the governing coalition parties in Berlin received such low percentages in regional elections

Both in Saxony and Thuringia the far-right AfD got more than twice as many votes as the so-called “traffic light” parties SPD, Greens and FDP combined. But did voters want to teach the federal government a lesson? Four out of five Germans are dissatisfied with the work of the federal government, and not just in recent months. The poll results are very bad for Chancellor Olaf Solz and his government.

The Alternative for Germany feels vindicated

The Alternative for Germany sees itself vindicated on all levels. AfD president Alice Weidel said on election night: “This is a historic success for us. We became the strongest force in the state elections for the first time, and in Saxony we achieved an even stronger result than in the previous elections. We will of course emerge stronger from the elections and it is also a punishment for the governing coalition.”

Chancellor Olaf Solz, on the other hand, did indeed call the results “bitter” while Social Democrats General Secretary Kevin Künert said: “This is not a night to cheer for the SPD. Let’s be honest. There was a real risk of being left out of local parliaments. The message for my party is that it is worth fighting for, we are needed and there are also people who approve of our politics and that is why we will have to fight again next year in the federal elections to regain greater strength.”

After Saxony and Thuringia, elections will be held in the state of Brandenburg on September 22. The AfD leads there as well, but is closely followed by the SPD. The Social Democrats will do everything they can to hold on to power as much is at stake in Brandenburg, where they have been in the local government since 1990.

How long will the governing coalition last?

Finally, the question that arises is whether and how long the governing coalition at the federal level will last. Poor results in local elections and poor poll results at the federal level are fueling the tension. Next year’s budget, which must be voted on by the federal parliament, is not the only potential source of conflict.

It also remains to be seen whether the government will be able to put into practice the tightening of immigration policy it has already announced.

However, none of the three governing parties can afford to let the coalition collapse. The Christian Union and the Alternative for Germany are waiting and pushing for an even greater tightening of immigration.

Edited by: Maria Rigoutsou