One of the members of the Ukrainian negotiating team that has been meeting with Russian representatives in Belarus, Denis Kireiev, was killed on Saturday (5) in Kiev.
According to the government, he and three other members of the intelligence service “were killed while carrying out a special mission”, without any details. For a Ukrainian deputy, Alexander Dubinski, the story is different: he died when he was arrested on charges of treason by the government.
Of course, the truth is unfathomable at this point, but it shows the degree of paranoia that grips a Kiev that is preparing for a massive Russian attack in the wake of the Russian invasion that began on February 24th.
According to reports from journalists still in the Ukrainian capital, every person on the street is treated as a suspect of sabotage or collaboration with the invaders. Rumors circulate of people being shot indiscriminately, which cannot be ascertained.
Vladimir Putin’s forces are concentrated around Kiev, seeking to close a circle in the northwest and northeast. Bombings have taken place at points around the city, and the famous 64 km long armored column is still parked 25 km from its outskirts.
So far, there have been two rounds of negotiations last week. They served for Moscow to reaffirm its terms of surrender to Kiev and for Ukraine to say that it does not accept them.
In short, Vladimir Putin’s government wants Volodymyr Zelensky’s government to stop resisting the invasion, accept to disarm to some extent, and commit to not joining NATO, the Western military alliance, and other European structures. At least that’s what the Russian president has been saying and reaffirmed this Sunday (6th) in a conversation with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Initially, by the design of the invasion, Putin seemed willing to overthrow Zelensky. Ukrainian resistance to a non-decisive Kremlin force seems to have changed that calculation, switching to capitulation. But it is not, of course, possible to know exactly the goal of the Russian.
There were timid advances in conversations, however. The so far unsuccessful attempt to establish humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians from cities under Russian siege came out of the second meeting, on Thursday (3). Both sides accuse each other of attacks during the evacuation, a classic problem in this type of operation.
A new round of talks will take place this Monday (7). As diplomatic movement drags on, the Russians are slowly advancing. This Sunday, the invasion of Odessa began to take shape.
Ukraine’s main Black Sea port, the city is targeted by Putin’s forces to the east, and an airport that could serve as an air support base for it has been destroyed. If Odessa is captured, Putin will have established control over almost the entire coast of the Black Sea, closing off Ukrainian access to it.
Whether it will be able to maintain such dominance with an eventual ceasefire is another question.
