The final results in the battle to win the Brandenburg state election have been announced, with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) narrowly winning with 30.9% (+4.3 from 2019), overturning the polls and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) to follow with 29.2% (+5.7%).

The battle for third place was finally won by the newly formed “Alliance Zara Wagenknecht” (BSW), which reached 13.5%, leaving the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) fourth with 12.1% (-3.5). The Greens are currently out of parliament, at 4.6% (-6.2), while the Left’s percentages shrank to 2.9% (-7.8) it seems that the departure of Zara Wagenknecht and the establishment of her own party.

Prime Minister Dietmar Vojtke (SPD) appeared modestly optimistic about the outcome of tonight’s match and spoke of “a lot of work” behind the success of his party. He, hugely popular in Brandenburg, had said before the election that if the SPD lost, he would quit. “Whoever wants Voydke, votes SPD”, was his campaign slogan, and his opponent Alice Weidel from the AfD argued that the SPD eventually received votes from supporters of other parties, such as of the Greens. Greens leader Ricarda Lang also described the “strategy vote” as a “problem”. However, her party can still hope to secure its entry into parliament through the direct election of one of its candidates. In Brandenburg, the electoral regulation stipulates that if a party elects even one member of parliament by direct election, it secures its entry into Parliament regardless of its overall percentage.

The CDU, for its part, is facing its historically worst election result in eastern Germany. Party secretary-general Carsten Linnemann attributed the CDU’s low ratings to the duel between Dietmar Voytke and AfD front-runner Christoph Berd, which ultimately polarized voters. The Christian Union (CDU/CSU) had made sure to decide on the chancellor candidate already before today’s election, with the CDU leader securing it for himself and relieving himself early of the stress of the election result.

The government under Dietmar Voytke (SPD, CDU, Greens) does not seem to be able to continue at the moment and, given the refusal of all parties to cooperate with the AfD, an alliance with Zara Wagenknecht may be needed. Already Mr. Vojtke has left open the possibility of negotiations with BSW.

Chancellor Olaf Solz, who voted by mail while in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, had little to gain from a possible victory for his party in Brandenburg, where the SPD has won every election since 1990. He had however, he stands to lose a lot if he loses, as there is strong resentment within his party for both him and the federal government. It is characteristic that Dietmar Voytke chose to fight the election battle by betting on his personal capital and without the chancellor, who in fact is a resident of Brandenburg, because he did not want to share the wear and tear of the federal government.

The Brandenburg elections conclude an extremely difficult election year for the government and not only, with the defeat of the federal coalition parties and the consolidation of the rise of the extremes in the European elections, in Saxony and Thuringia. The next state election will be held in March in traditionally Social Democratic Hamburg, and Olaf Scholz will sooner or later also be faced with the question of whether he will ultimately retain the privilege of being head of the SPD’s election campaign again ahead of the autumn’s federal election. 2025 or be forced to drop out in favor of a more popular candidate such as Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.