With the exception of the Frenchman’s karatemization Thierry Breton at the last minute, its new European Commission Ursula von der Leyen probably had no surprises in store. Unfortunately, there were no pleasant surprises in store either.

Those who hoped that its president Commission would fully implement the commitment to equal representation of men and women, they were probably disappointed. Although we have to recognize that Ursula von der Leyen “fought it” and, although initially 17 of the 27 member states had nominated only men for the position of Commissioner, today the proportion of women reaches 40%.

Those who hoped for an encouraging omen for a relaxed treatment of the Stability Pact were probably also disappointed. It seems that the strict Latvian Dombrovskis, exponent of fiscal discipline, is declared the guardian of the economic policy, no longer having the condescending Italian Gentiloni by his side.

Among the losers of the new five-year period are also the devotees of the famous “Green Deal”, which was a top priority of the von der Leyen Commission in 2019, at a time when the Greens were achieving unprecedented electoral successes. This time the operation of the Commission revolves around the defense industry and not the “ecological transformation” of the economy.

Fito’s candidacy is a “thorn”.

Disappointment also prevails among those who hoped that the Italian Raffaele Fito from the post-fascist party of Georgia Meloni will not be included among the leaders of the Commission. It is the first time that a politician with an extreme right-wing “aura” assumes the position of vice-president of the European Commission, giving Meloni the opportunity to triumphantly boast to her domestic audience that “Italy’s pivotal role in Europe is recognized”.

It is probably a non-existent periautology. Indeed, Italy has a special weight and a leading role in Europe, but this is not because it is ruled by Meloni. It is due to the fact that Italy is a founding member and the third largest economy of the Eurozone, moreover, since 2000 it appears as a net contributor to the EU budget, i.e. it contributes much more than it receives (for some time, in fact, it was the largest net contributor proportionally with its Gross National Product).

National governments are “lurking”.

But Ursula von der Leyen is not naive. He has proven that he possesses an instinct for power. And he probably senses that some of those who today resent Fito and Meloni, in a few years will ask for the support of the political group “European Conservatives and Reformists” (ECR), where Fito and Meloni will set the tone, in order to pass the legislation that interests them. In any case, in the European Parliament the concept of party discipline is more “loose” and the alliances rather changeable compared to national Parliaments.

However, the real opponents are not in Parliament. They lurk and sharpen their swords in national capitals. There the success of Ursula von der Leyen will be judged.

Example: Not even 24 hours had passed since the presentation of the new Commissioners to the European Parliament Plenary, when the Netherlands – under the apparent influence of Gerd Wilders who controls 5 of the 15 ministries in the new government in The Hague – announced that it wished to withdraw from the European Pact on Migration and Asylum. That simple. We are talking about one of the greatest achievements of the first von der Leyen Commission in the previous five years. The outgoing vice-president of the Commission, Margaritis Schinas, called it a “historic agreement” in a recent interview with DW.

Will the European Commission react? Can he react?