Less than a week into the war, it seems increasingly likely that Vladimir Putin is heading for historic defeat. He can win every battle but still lose the war.
Putin’s dream of rebuilding the Russian Empire has always been based on the lie that Ukraine is not a real nation, that Ukrainians are not a real people, and that people in Kiev, Kharkiv and Lviv dream of being ruled. by Moscow. It’s an absolute lie.
Ukraine is a nation with over a thousand years of history, and Kiev was already a major metropolis when Moscow did not even have village status. But the Russian despot has told his lie so many times that he seems to believe himself.
When planning his invasion of Ukraine, Putin could rely on many known facts. He knew that, in military terms, Russia far surpasses Ukraine. He knew that NATO would not send troops to help Ukraine. He knew that Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas would make countries like Germany hesitate to impose tough sanctions. Based on these known facts, his plan was to attack Ukraine hard and fast, behead its government, install a puppet regime in Kiev and face Western sanctions.
But that plan contained a big unknown. As the Americans found out in Iraq and the Soviets learned in Afghanistan, it’s much easier to conquer a country than to keep it under control later. Putin knew he had enough power to conquer Ukraine. But would the Ukrainian population simply accept Putin’s puppet regime? The Russian leader bet it did.
After all, as he explained countless times to anyone willing to listen, Ukraine is not a real nation and Ukrainians are not a real people. In 2014, the inhabitants of Crimea put up virtually no resistance to Russian invaders. Why would 2022 be any different?
It is becoming clearer with each passing day that Putin is losing the bet. The Ukrainian people are resisting with all their might, earning the admiration of the entire world – and winning the war. Many dark days lie ahead. The Russians can still conquer the entire length of Ukraine. But to win the war the Russians would have to keep Ukraine in their hands, and that they can only do if the Ukrainians allow it. It seems increasingly unlikely that this will happen.
Every Russian tank destroyed and every Russian soldier killed strengthens the Ukrainians’ courage to resist. And every dead Ukrainian intensifies the hatred Ukrainians feel towards the invaders. Hate is the cruelest of emotions. But for oppressed nations, it is a hidden treasure. Buried deep in the heart, it is capable of keeping the resistance alive for generations. To recreate the Russian Empire, Putin needs a relatively bloodless victory that leads to a relatively hate-free occupation. By shedding more and more Ukrainian blood, Putin is ensuring that his dream never comes true. It will not be the name of Mikhail Gorbachev that will be inscribed on the death certificate of the Russian empire: it will be that of Putin. Gorbachev left Russians and Ukrainians feeling like brothers; Putin has turned them into enemies and has ensured that from now on the Ukrainian nation will define itself in opposition to Russia.
Ultimately, nations are built on stories. Each passing day adds more stories that Ukrainians will tell not just in the dark days ahead, but in the decades and generations to come. The president who refused to leave the capital, telling the US he needs ammunition, not a ride; the Snake Island soldiers who said “Fuck off” to a Russian warship; civilians who tried to stop Russian tanks by sitting in their way. These are the accounts on which nations are built. In the long run, these stories are worth more than tanks.
The Russian despot should know this as well as anyone. As a child, he grew up hearing stories about German atrocities and Russian bravery at the siege of Leningrad. Now he is producing similar stories, but taking on the role of Hitler.
Stories of Ukrainian bravery strengthen the resolve not only of Ukrainians, but of the entire world. They give courage to the governments of European countries, the US administration and even the downtrodden citizens of Russia. If Ukrainians dare to stop a tank with their bare hands, the German government can dare to supply them with some anti-tank missiles, the American government can dare to cut off Russia’s access to the Swift system, and Russian citizens can dare to publicly voice their opposition to this senseless war.
We can all be inspired to dare to do something, whether it’s making a donation, welcoming refugees or helping with the struggle online. The war in Ukraine will shape the future of the entire world. If we let tyranny and aggression win, we will all suffer the consequences. It’s not worth continuing as mere observers. It’s time to take a step forward and give the face to beat.
Unfortunately, this war is likely to last a long time. Taking on different forms, it is quite possible that it will continue for years. But the most important question has already been decided. The last few days have proved to the whole world that Ukraine is a very real nation, that Ukrainians are a very real people and that they definitely do not want to live under a new Russian empire. The main question that remains is how long it will take for this message to penetrate the thick walls of the Kremlin.
