The Lithuanians go to the polls today for the first round of parliamentary elections, which are expected to lead to a change of power but not a substantial change in the country’s foreign policy, as the major parties agree on the need to support Ukraine and strengthen defense against Russian threats.

Analysts estimate that the center-left will succeed the conservative party in power, while pointing to the possibility of a new populist party entering parliament whose leader is being prosecuted for anti-Semitic comments.

Lithuania – a Baltic state of 2.8 million people – fears it could be Russia’s next target, after Russian forces invaded Ukraine.

The major parties of this NATO and EU member state agree on the need to support Kiev and maintain or even increase defense spending, which currently stands at around 3% of GDP.

Polls show that the Social Democratic Party (LSDP)which remained in power from 2012 to 2016, will emerge first in the elections with a percentage of around 20%.

The ruling center-right party Union of the Fatherland (TS-LKD) is projected to garner around 15% of the vote. In total, six or seven parties are expected to secure their representation in parliament.

The president Gitanas Nausenda, who was re-elected last May with the support of the Social Democrats, met during the pre-election period with the leaders of all parliamentary parties except the TS-LKD, with which he had several clashes in the previous months.

“The time of the conservatives is over”, she explained Vilija Blinkevičuteleader of the Social Democrats and former Minister of Social Security and Labour.

The LSDP he has pledged, among other things, to cut taxes for families with children, increase pensions, reduce VAT on food and increase funding for social services.

Among the highlights of the elections is the possibility of the newly formed populist party entering parliament Nemuno Aušra (NA) led by former MP Remigius Yemaitaitis. Last year, Yemaitaitis resigned as an MP due to criticism he received for anti-Semitic comments. He is being prosecuted for inciting hatred, a charge he denies and insists he was merely criticizing the Israeli government over its policy in the Gaza Strip.

Most parties have pledged before the election to exclude Yemaitaitis from any process of forming a government coalition.

“I think we are facing not only a geopolitical threat, but also an internal political threat,” said the foreign minister and head of the conservative TS-LKD Gabrielius Landsbergis.

During World War II, 90% of Lithuania’s approximately 208,000 Jews perished, and the historical memory of the Holocaust in that country is still hotly debated.

The first round of elections will decide about half of the 141 parliamentary seats, while the rest will be distributed based on the results of the second round on October 27.