Growing concern over the United States’ inability to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East has led some of Washington’s closest Arab allies to normalize relations with its main regional rival: Iran.

A year ago, Saudi Arabia was preparing to recognize Israel in a normalization deal that would fundamentally reshape the Middle East and further isolate Iran and its allies.

Now, that deal is further away than ever, as a diplomatic meltdown is underway in the Middle East.

In recent months, Arab states have moved to normalize relations with the Islamic Republic to prevent a wider regional war as US efforts appear to be failing to prevent a regional escalation.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is visiting the Middle East for the eleventh time in a year in an apparent attempt to capitalize on the assassination of Hamas leader and architect of October 7, Yahya Sinwar, to broker a Gaza ceasefire deal. US officials, however, are tempering expectations as Washington’s calls for de-escalation have so far fallen on deaf ears due to Israel’s steadfast stance on continuing its wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

Blinken’s visit also comes as Israel prepares to respond to Tehran’s attack. The Iranian strike was in response to the assassination by Israel of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last month and that of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran in July.

Arab states are suspicious of Shiite Iran’s role in a region dominated by US-allied Sunni states and share Israel’s concerns.

In the past month, however, Tehran has sought to count allies over its conflict with Israel, sending top officials and diplomats to its neighbors, many of which host US military personnel and bases. Arab states that had spent decades of tension with Iran over disputed regional influence are now opting for normalization of relations with it.

Diplomatic marathon

In a rare meeting this month, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who once called Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “the new Hitler of the Middle East,” met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Riyadh. It was the third meeting between Iranian and Saudi officials in a month. Tehran’s top diplomat also met Jordan’s King Abdullah II in Amman and made a rare trip to Egypt for talks with President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi in Cairo. He also met with the Prime Minister of Qatar in Doha, the Foreign Minister of Oman in Muscat and the King of Bahrain in Manama.

These efforts appeared to have paid off.

“All our friends have given us assurances that their land and airspace will not be used to attack Iran… We expect this from all countries in the region,” Araghtsi said after meeting with Kuwaiti Crown Prince Sabah Al- Sabah in Kuwait City.

Despite seeing an opportunity to weaken Iran’s regional influence, Arab countries exude an attitude of neutrality. A regional source told CNN last week that UAE airspace would not be used for any strikes on the Islamic Republic.

“The priority of the Gulf Arab monarchies is not to get directly involved in a regional conflict. They fear that they will be targeted and end up being the direct target of crossfire,” said Cinzia Bianco, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “They believe that the best way to avoid such a scenario is to become very useful interlocutors for both sides and especially Iran, which is seen as the most likely of the parties involved to try to hit them.”

Israel’s actions in Lebanon and Gaza have significantly degraded Hezbollah and Hamas, groups that some Arab states and their media label as “terrorists.” While some Gulf Arab states may privately welcome the development, experts say they are deeply concerned about the potential for a major escalation of regional violence if Israel does not curb its aggression.

“In the immediate sense the Gulf states are not unhappy to see Hezbollah weakened and decapitated, but given how reckless Israel has been and how unclear its strategic goals in the war are, there are broader concerns about how the neighborhood might end up.” them, after most of the war is over,” Hassan Alhassan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, told CNN.

The Biden administration’s long-running effort to broker a cease-fire agreement in Gaza and curb violence in Lebanon has failed. The US also tried to persuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to de-escalate the tension.

A “critical juncture”

Gulf Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), two of the world’s top oil producers, have in recent years redirected their foreign policy away from conflict to serve their economic interests, which has led to a rewarming of relations with their former adversaries, such as Iran. But they fear an uncontrolled regional war could hurt their economic ambitions.

“At this critical juncture, the UAE believes that a strong and effective American role is extremely necessary,” Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, told CNN this month. “We need a ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza as soon as possible.”

Gulf Arab states that have been repeatedly attacked by Iran-allied groups are now skeptical of the US’s intention to protect them if Iran strikes. Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities were hit in 2019 in an attack Washington blamed on Tehran, while the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen hit Abu Dhabi in 2022. The US then did not intervene.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates expressed dismay at President Joe Biden’s de-designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization soon after taking office and the failure of the US to reinstate the designation after the Abu Dhabi attacks. This happened this year after the group began attacking shipping in the Red Sea to punish Israel after October 7.

“The feeling in the Gulf has definitely shifted,” Bianco said, adding that “the Gulf monarchies have lost faith in their main security guarantor, the United States.”

This change is the result of a change in the strategy of the US to withdraw from the Middle East as it turns its attention to China as at least the Arab countries interpret it. However, regional states rely heavily on their military relationship with the US.

Saudi Arabia is seeking a formal security agreement with Washington and the United Arab Emirates, which hosts about 5,000 US troops, is expected to become a major US defense partner.

Just a week before the Hamas attack on October 7 last year, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told a panel at the Atlantic Festival in Washington that the Middle East “is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” .

“The time I have to spend on the crisis and conflict in the Middle East today compared to any of my predecessors since 9/11 is significantly reduced,” he said, adding that US efforts were focused on regional integration and normalization with the Israel, which “could create a larger and more stable base as we go forward.”