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The pair of Euro / dollar currencies did not vary a trajectory in the aftermath of a council of the Governors of the ECB. Unsurprisingly, the powerful central bank based in Frankfurt has maintained its unchanged guiding rates, not without providing some precious lessons.
“The press release specifies the reaction function of the ECB,” notes Christophe Morel, chief economist at Groupama Asset Management. “Thus, the monetary orientation would depend not only on the perspective on inflation, but also on the balance of risks around the central scenario. C. Lagarde insisted that the increase in customs duties would probably cause bottlenecks at a given time and tensions on the value chains that will feed inflation.”
And precisely, on these customs duties that Washington wants to impose on Brussels, will the surcharge be 10%? 20 %? The price fog is not yet dissipated, and the trades have, like Ms. Lagarde, the need for a clear working hypothesis to build their inflation and growth forecast.
The spokesman for the European Commission, Olof Gilles, told journalists on Thursday that an agreement between the European Union and the United States was “at hand”. The day before several media had indicated that the two parties were heading for a text limiting customs surcharge inflicted on European imports to 15%, with certain sectoral exceptions. What would be very similar to the agreement between the United States and Japan, announced earlier in the week.
As Grégoire Kounowski recalls, Investment Advisor at Norman K, “According to this agreement, Japan will invest $ 550 billion in the United States, said Trump on Truth Social without providing more details. Japan will also open up to American imports of goods such as cars and trucks, rice and other agricultural products. In exchange, Japanese Prime Minister says On cars have been reduced by 25 to 15 %, without any quota on the number of imports.
“After similar deals with the United Kingdom, Vietnam or even Indonesia, Japan becomes the largest economy with which Washington manages to find an agreement. However, the rate of 15%, higher than 10% in force so far, testifies to Donald Trump’s desire to maintain an aggressive commercial policy on his main partners. A maximalist and assumed position which complicates discussions with EU and China.”
Yesterday in terms of statistical publications, the day was dense. Bover has notably had the opportunity to take the economic health pulse of the euro zone, with the famous PMI activity barometer indicators. If the Manufacturer PMI came out closely close to expectations, a hair of the 50 points*, the Services component pleasantly surprises by winning 0.7 points at 51.2.
“The economic recovery of the euro zone has gradually consolidated in recent months. The recession of the manufacturing sector seems to be coming to an end, while the growth of the services sector has accelerated slightly in July. According to our immediate GDP forecasting model, which takes into account the PMI Flash Hcob index, the economy of the euro zone should record a sustained expansion in the third quarter Corrobrate with data from the next few months, “deciphers Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, who completes the following lights on the two main economic power of the monetary union.
“Germany should record weak economic growth in July, while France is oriented towards a slight contraction, a difference which is partly explained by the political climate in these two countries. The massive reductions of public spending announced by François Bayrou and the threat of censorship weighing on its government explain in particular the strong fall in the confidence recorded during the month in the French manufacturing sector.”
In addition to the Atlantic, weekly unemployment benefits registration is downtown to 217,000 new units, a new proof of American employment iron health, giving more credit to the prudent posture of J Powell, to the Dam of Donald Trump. The two men met yesterday, site helmets screwed on the skull, traveling in a scene cockleting the renovation site of the Fed headquarters.
This morning, the IFO index of the business climate in Germany was hardly away from the target defined by consensus, with a solid score of 88.6. To follow at 2:30 p.m. the orders of sustainable Outrre Atlantique.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1740 approximately.
Key graphics elements
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,1734 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2464 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1459 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 730 pips and the risk of loss is 275 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
