When Israeli forces killed Hamas leader Yahya Shinwar in Gaza last week, many inside and outside Israel hoped it would be the moment Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would declare victory, and scale back the operation in the enclave, hoping to secure a ceasefire and a hostage release agreement.

A week after Sinuar’s death, it’s becoming increasingly clear that they were wrong.

Netanyahu, who celebrated his 75th birthday on Monday, is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, leading his country through its longest war.

Israel’s international allies, as well as many inside the country, are pressing Netanyahu to end the war now, pointing out that Sinwar’s killing came on the heels of other military successes, most notably the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Instead, Netanyahu has vowed to keep fighting, leaving the world wondering what his ultimate goal might be.

He has hinted that his ambitions may go far beyond crushing Hamas and Hezbollah, the two most immediate threats facing Israel. He said killing Nasrallah was “a necessary step” toward changing “the balance of power in the region for years to come,” raising concerns about his willingness to plunge Israel into a direct confrontation with Iran.

Israel and Iran are dangerously close to another major escalation after Iran launched a massive ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1.
Netanyahu immediately promised retaliation, but three weeks later, the world is still waiting to see what Israel will do next. The US and other allies have urged Netanyahu to exercise restraint and refrain from striking Iran’s nuclear and oil resources, but it is unclear whether they have succeeded.

Netanyahu has publicly stated that he wants his military to eliminate Iran’s proxies that pose the most immediate threat to Israel: Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. But it is increasingly apparent that this goal may be impossible to achieve.

The current situation in northern Gaza shows why. The Israeli military has already withdrawn from the area twice after announcing, both times, that it had crushed Hamas there.

However, earlier this month, the IDF moved in again after seeing what it said were signs of a re-emergence of Hamas in the area.

Northern Gaza is now once again one of the epicenters of the war, with the IDF causing enormous suffering to people who had returned to what was left of their homes after the latest Israeli withdrawal.

Likewise, weeks after Israel’s operation in Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to strike. A drone launched over the weekend flew through Israeli air defenses and struck Netanyahu’s beach house about 50 miles from the Lebanese border. On Monday, a drone launched from Lebanon managed to get past Israeli air defenses and hit Netanyahu’s seaside home in the coastal city of Caesarea, about 50 miles from the Lebanese border.

Netanyahu’s reluctance to sign a cease-fire agreement, even now after securing several military victories, has angered many in Israel. Mass protests against him and his government continue every week, demanding a deal with Hamas that would secure the release of the 101 hostages still being held in Gaza.

Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser and spokesman who is now a political analyst, said the fate of the hostages – dozens of whom are believed to be still alive – is critical to Netanyahu’s future legacy.

“If Netanyahu is unable to free any more hostages, whether through military or diplomatic means, (the world) will say he failed, and they will always remember what they call ‘The Netanyahu Proposal’ in July, where, at the last minute , added a few more terms to a ceasefire agreement that effectively ended the deal,” it said.

Bushinski told CNN that if the war ends without any more hostages being freed or rescued or bodies recovered, it’s possible that some will eventually begin to question the decision to kill Sinuar — news that was welcomed across much of Israel last week.

“And that’s my biggest fear, that people will say, ‘Oh, you see, we made a mistake by eliminating the one person you could have negotiated with… who knows what would have happened, but at least you had some door to knock on.” “, he added.

“There is no incentive to end the war”

Netanyahu is playing a complicated game, trying to balance the conflicting demands of his many allies he cannot afford to lose.

His government relies on the support of far-right figures such as Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who make no secret of the fact that they want Israel to continue to occupy Gaza and even propose building Jewish settlements there.

Netanyahu’s approval ratings have improved over the past year, but not enough for him to call new elections and win. So, it’s bogged down.

“Ending the Gaza war and the Lebanon war is not an option for his political partners in the coalition. They want to go all the way, so he can’t end the war with the current coalition,” said Gail Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

“The typical Netanyahu we’ve seen over the past 15 years would likely move toward a government of national unity and a major (ceasefire) deal with U.S. support. But actually that’s not the political situation we’re in, so politically, with this coalition, he has no incentive to end the war,” he added.

Talsir explained that a broader national unity government is not an option for Netanyahu, as it would likely mean a public inquiry, led by a judge, into the failures that led to the Oct. 7 attacks.

In addition, Netanyahu has pending trials on multiple charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery. He is scheduled to begin testifying in December – the first sitting Israeli prime minister to appear in court as a defendant.|

Before the Oct. 7 terror attacks, Netanyahu and his government tried to push through a controversial judicial reform that would have given the government far more power over the courts — potentially allowing Netanyahu to influence his own trial. A government of national unity would not allow this, Talsir said.

Netanyahu’s legacy

At the same time, Netanyahu must consider US demands. The Biden administration has made it clear that it wants Israel to work toward an agreement that would end the war.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Israel on Tuesday, urging Netanyahu and his government to do more to ease tensions.
But Netanyahu appears increasingly immune to pressure from the US – Blinken’s trip this week is his 11th visit to the Middle East in a year, yet, like previous trips, he appears to have achieved little.

Tensions between Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden are well-known, but they are likely to worsen in the near future.

With the US election on a razor’s edge, Biden must carefully adjust his approach to Israel so as not to damage Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances of victory. He has to be seen as taking a hard line on the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza to prevent Arab Americans and progressives from leaving his party because of the war Israel is waging. However, the US president must also continue to support Israel so as not to anger moderate and Jewish voters who expect the US to stand by the Jewish state no matter what.

“The US election plays a dramatic role in how Netanyahu perceives what’s going to happen,” Talsir told CNN. “He has a window of opportunity because there is very little chance that Biden can hold off Netanyahu now. But after November 5, things will change,” he added.

He said that regardless of who wins, the Biden administration can put much more pressure on Israel to end the war in the two months between the election and the inauguration of the new US president.

Biden has already hinted that he may step up the pressure – warning Tel Aviv that the US may stop supplying Israel with weapons unless the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves.

“Netanyahu knows that later there is no bigger picture of victory, because both Sinwar and Nasrallah are already dead. So the question is whether what he wants is to wait for (former President Donald) Trump (to be re-elected) and get some sort of grand defense alliance between the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel, which would be, from the perspective of, probably more likely under Trump,” Talsir commented, adding that reaching such a deal would give Netanyahu a huge political boost at home.

“He is the leader of the Israeli state at its most disastrous point since it was founded, so the further he is from October 7 and the more military victories he has in his ‘gallons’, the more likely he is to emerge victorious again,” he noted. .

For Netanyahu, creating the image of the prime minister who saved his country is the dream, Bushinski said, adding that if he succeeded, he might even consider resigning.

“Most people think he won’t, but I’ve worked with him and I’ve seen him once, in 2001, turn down the chance to be prime minister. Maybe he’s changed, but I think if he manages to end up as a great hero, someone who has done some kind of ‘Churchill act’ for the state of Israel, he would say to himself, “enough is enough,”’ he said.

“And then his mission would be to make some kind of deal with the prosecution, maybe they’ll let him go and he’ll be able to go abroad, lecture as the one who defeated terror… and if he doesn’t have a criminal record, he’ll be able to sitting on all kinds of advisory boards and making a lot of money, which he thinks he’s missing.”